I am too lazy to do it, but that rule has been valid for the last 6-8 or so months. Plenty of data points... Actually, it has been valid since Nitro actually made a profit... Edit: One quick example from March 9th, just before the market took a nosedive: By the inverse rule, he should have shorted it, making plenty of money... As I said, plenty of data points....
I think backing out those weights (basically a simultaneous equation), doesn't provide any new information you can't get from a graph and looking at 3 points. Why do you think markets are of finite response? I will argue the opposite.
FV has collapsed further. Calibrated FV, 1102.36. FV 1240.77. Mid 1171.56. Added S Sep ES 1186.25. Wanted short at 1192, but bawked.
You're just flipping the coin here. If BO says something tonight that the markets endorse, you will be turned into ground beef. It could always go your way but you have ZERO edge long or short on this.
"Terror threat called 'credible' for 9/11 anniversary" http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44444344/ns/us_news-security/
I am buying this...10 years after 9/11, and we are still around. It is reason to celebrate. Optimists win, terrorists lose!
I am debating where to take some profits. All FVs are imploding, but life has taught me the hard way to take some profits along the way. Logic dictates some at 1150 and some at 1142, but if we go through 1142 this is going to 1100 with a pit stop at 1120. That is a bunch of loot to leave behind... For now, I think I will just enjoy