Calibrated FV 1258.67. FV 1385.26. Note that FV is going higher, calibrated FV is going higher, and the market is going lower. The market is probably wrong and we go higher from here, green by EOD. L SPY 121.01, just for fun.
looking at bls stats, we haven't had this type of gdp contraction ever. 4 straight quarters down, there was continuous growth for 10-20 years at a pop, then the 2008-2009 period, take a look. http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp
Let's say you have a model which predicts a specific day when Jesus comes down to Earth. The day comes, and Jesus is not here. Quite undisturbed, you say, "Jesus is probably wrong".
Thanks. More interesting data to digest! I don't immediately see what you are saying, but I just looked at the data in a cursory way.
Calibrated FV, 1316.30. FV 1404.55. Believe it or not, model is not backing out a bigger % chance of recession out of market today than yesterday. Hmmmm.....Model is definitely saying that market is poised for a big move higher into year end, less exogenous events. Standing bids at 1172, and 1142. I have a small SPY position that I put on, but it is inconsequential.
look at the quarter to quarter gdp declines, they are pretty rare historically, from 2008-2009 there were at least 4 quarter to quarter declines in a row, I will let you parse the data.