I agree but see below. Right now the market is probably giddy on a Jackson Hole announcement. Still, I am playing FV, not any of that. The biggest worry I have is a recession. Stocks lose on average 40% of their value during a recession. So since we had lost nearly 20%, you can tell that the market has about a 37% probability of a recession. I am increasing the complexity of the model to take GDP and other things into consideration soon. It is easy to say, but coming up with the equations to fit everything else is what counts. I have an idea of how to do it. Here will be some inputs (I will discuss these, but not what is in it now) Real GDP (Y/Y) Monthly GDP Chicago Fed National Activity Index Chicago PMI The Streettalk ISM Composite Index Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Philly Fed Survey Dallas Fed Survey Kansas City Fed Survey The National Federation of Independent Business Survey Leading economic indicator The whole purpose of these indicators will be to give me some discount factor that will scale FV.
I hear you and I appreciate your input. I am not really cheering up or down because tomorrow FV could be below the market. But I do enjoy when I am making money and I don't like losing it. I am made up of blood and bones and tissue, and I am a very passionate person. I realize this about me, and I try to maintain a level head the best I can.
FV is about 100x more sophisticated than that. I get a 200 day of about 1285? http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Calibrated FV 1239.14. FV 1353.47. SPX at 1173.xx. Working to take 1/2 of position off for a decent profit.