still looking for info: where can we get weighting data for each stock in each of the indices (ES, NQ, YM, etc.)?
Everything but NDX. http://www.indexarb.com/indexComponentWtSwitch.html In this thread I try to discover the NDX weights: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=154987
Extremely dangerous situation. SPX trading below the bear market lows. GE is down 6% and counting. C common is 90 delta to be worth zero. On the other hand, the ES is well below fair value. I don't know. Instinct says sit on hands on directional trades.
Did anyone try the above posted on 02/25/09? QQQQ raced down to catch up with SPY. Spread would have been healthy to your account.
You are also a user of the work done by a previous bear. It is valid but only on first touch of that ground. You can fall another time and rebound, but no certainty a solid low net won't get broken. My model told me, as per my previous post on this threa of a couple days ago, that smart money is hiding at SPY 74, and smarter money hiding at SPY 72. The real smart people, one of my model says, are waiting for their preys to show up at level SPY 60. It may not happen, but they are counting on it and are thinking that it could happen within 38 trading days counting from the most recent high. In other words, they want to bloody early spring on wall street.
I see ET has developed a sort of oddball ecology: on worthwhile threads started by folks who have a clue, or at least provide fun during those large slices of the day when not much happens, certain parasites seem to like to burrow in. Repeatedly. One wonders, however, what their ecological function actually is.
682 ish SPX next support. ES trading well below "FV", but you don't buy new breaks of bear market lows at anything but the most disciplined price.
I am going to adopt a scale used in Vulcanology to describe the magnitude of explosion, to describe how far above/below "FV" we get. http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Volcanoes/Basics_of_Volcanoes So, Gentle is 5-10 handles from "FV" ... Cataclysmic Paroxysmal is 75 to 100 handles from "FV" Colossal is 100 to 150 handles from "FV" Super-Colossal 150 to 200 handles from "FV" Mega-Collosal is 200 to 300 handles from "FV" Fortunately is 300+ handles from "FV" (probably someone dropped a nuclear warhead on a major city in the world)
So apparently, FV can not be used for timing a good entry...because the market can stay longer below/above FV than you can stay solvent... By the way, how exactly is FV calculated?
I have stated elsewhere that imo the market's version of the conservation of energy can be violated for extended periods of time. [I mean analogous to the Quantum theory version in the link below] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy Another possibility is that I am in a similar position to that of Antoine Lavoisier when he was trying to prove that matter is neither created nor destroyed, but his early theory did not take into account all forms that matter could take. Analogously, I may be missing a variable that added to the FV/ES system, would show a complete conservation relation. "Market energy" is escaping somewhere I do not take into account. For example, maybe the equation is 0 = "FV" - ES + VIX^(FractalDimension(SPX)), in which case "fear" is the missing variable. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antoine_Lavoisier That is proprietary.