amazing theres so much interest here for this nonsense, and my 100% accurate calls get little attention. on 2nd thought, not amazing at all. for it to be amazing it would have to be a surprise. like saying Obama is turning out to be an inept boob is a surprise. knot.
Well, we are not. For all practical purposes, the Journal is deep in the red and FV version 5 sucked just as much as the previous 4 versions. So just at what point would you get back to reality and acknowledged that your strategy is FUNDAMENTALLY flawed??? By the way, it is a consistent loser, so maybe a reverse back up is in order....
i like the prior version that had short bias. as far as i recall it nailed more or less every turn in summer 2010 but then totally broke down after Ben started QE2. the volatility is back this year, maybe that version is working now.
Date Underlying Close Open High Low Close Volume Call: 7/26/2011 1331.94 37.00 39.85 36.00 36.00 Put: 7/26/2011 1331.94 33.40 36.00 32.00 34.00 Call: 8/2/2011 1254.05 12.70 13.00 7.00 7.00 Put: 8/2/2011 1254.05 61.90 76.68 61.90 76.68 the straddle is holding well, but under water: 72->83.68 p.s. i agree it was a good trade and will work out nicely in all likelihood.
where is FV at now? huge moves today in bonds, gold, stocks - the model probably enjoyed crunching the new numbers today.