Kudos to MMs

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by nitro, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. Hmm.
     
    #3161     Jul 11, 2011
  2. nitro

    nitro

    FWIW, "FV" 1386.09.

    Yes, it took a giant tumble over the weekend.
     
    #3162     Jul 11, 2011
  3. what's your best guess for FV "normalized by hand" right now?
     
    #3163     Jul 11, 2011
  4. nitro

    nitro

    Impossible to say until I get dynamically scaled parameters. If you are asking for my opinion, it is somewhere around 1400. (I made the changes by hand and this number represents that. But they are still hardwired.)

    As it stands, the model whips back and forth far more violently (about double) than SPX. On the other hand, the market is telling you that before the Italy and Spain situation, it was comfortable going to the next resistance point of 1372. So if you are listening and you believe it, that is probably very close to "FV", imo.

    The question is whether those dislocations will take the market down farther emotionally. That no model can predict. That is why we use stop losses.

    All trading above high frequency is estimating with a relative-to-time-frame error-term. If you want a tight error, go to the high frequency. That is a mathematical limitation,similar to the Nyquist Shannon sampling theorem:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyquist–Shannon_sampling_theorem
     
    #3164     Jul 11, 2011
  5. dont

    dont

    I guarantee you, that it has absolutely nothing to do with the Nyquist frequency, You are an official boson, where is nltro
     
    #3165     Jul 11, 2011
  6. nitro, what's your elo? a wide range would do if you don't mind releasing this type of info.
     
    #3166     Jul 11, 2011
  7. nitro

    nitro

    2100 - 2300
     
    #3167     Jul 11, 2011
  8. nitro

    nitro

    Nothing to do. Emotions are high over Italy et al. I was watching Fast Money last night, and this woman called the Europe situation "Jack in the Box." So apropos.
     
    #3168     Jul 12, 2011
  9. nitro

    nitro

    FWIW, "FV" 1360.16.

    It has come in considerably in the last week. I don't feel as strongly as I did about 1372 profit target on the above trade. I suspect that as the market rights itself, "FV" will also go higher. But if it doesn't, I will be reconsidering PT, initially to 1342. But right now this is all premature.
     
    #3169     Jul 12, 2011
  10. 1386, now 1360. what was the highest value in the last ~2 weeks?
     
    #3170     Jul 12, 2011