I put a call in to the Humane society for someone to check in on Shreddy. This selloff in the spoos could mean lean times for Shreddy in the future. I hope he was over weight going into this selloff so he can ride it out a little bit before the bones start showing.
Nothing to do. This trend-less range will resolve itself soon. I just claim odds of resolving higher is greater than it is resolving lower. Holding balls long position. In hindsight, if I had played even just long and taking profits near 1302, I would have made 100 handles already by buying 1272 and selling 1297 ish. 20/20. Perhaps the seasonality is the clue that this was the odds on thing to do. Another thing that is occurring to me is, take long profits a few points below where the breakout is, then buy again a couple above the breakout if it is taken out. This will lose when the market steam rolls over a resistance point, but perhaps that is where seasonal studies would tilt the odds in favor of one or the other strategy. So the Livermore saying still holds, but the modern way is to let the data study modify that a bit. 1302 ish is the key higher. 1260 ish is the key lower.
Greece is not Greece anymore: <object id="wsj_fp" width="512" height="363"><param name="movie" value="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/VideoPlayerMain.swf"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><param name="flashvars" value="videoGUID={373566C2-7323-4E8A-8797-36858953526A}&playerid=1000&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http://wsj.vo.llnwd.net/o28/players/&autoStart=false" base="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/"name="flashPlayer"></param><embed src="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/VideoPlayerMain.swf" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"flashVars="videoGUID={373566C2-7323-4E8A-8797-36858953526A}&playerid=1000&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http://wsj.vo.llnwd.net/o28/players/&autoStart=false" base="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/" name="flashPlayer" width="512" height="363" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object> It has become to the EU what Puerto Rico is to the US.
The lessons from the results of this article are very interesting, if not deep: http://eureka.ya.com/economistasuade/Sornette/Increments_of_Uncorrelated_Time_Series.pdf One in 500 people on ET will understand the ramifications of that article, and its most important message.
can you translate this sentence for me in English: Our result (14) shows then that we can predict with a 75% accuracy the sign of the increment of the daily returns (and not the sign of the returns that are proportional to the increment of the prices themselves) "This predictive skill does not lead to any anomalies. Consider for instance the time series of price returns of a stock market. According to the effecient market hypothesis (ref.[1] and references therein) and the random walk model, successive (say daily) price returns of liquid organized markets are essentially independent with approximately symmetric distributions. Our result (14) shows then that we can predict with a 75% accuracy the sign of the increment of the daily returns (and not the sign of the returns that are proportional to the increment of the prices themselves). This predictive skill is not associate to an arbitrage opportunities in market trading. "
It's really much simpler and mundane than what it appears as it's written. Consider random time series: x1, x2, x3, x4, ... x(n) You can't predict x(n+1) better than using a coin toss. However, the sign of x(n+1) - x(n) can be predicted with 75% accuracy. It's simply a game of probabilities. For example, if x(n) is a large number, chances are that x(n+1) - x(n) will be negative. That's all there is to it.