Kudos to MMs

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by nitro, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. fad2171

    fad2171

    I would not disagree in a large move higher.Then watch out
     
    #3021     Apr 25, 2011
  2. dont

    dont

    OK the top is in!
     
    #3022     Apr 25, 2011
  3. nitro

    nitro

    SPX back at major resistance. I doubt anything can hold back this horse though...1372 is "imminent", imo.
     
    #3023     Apr 26, 2011
  4. nitro

    nitro

    90-delta FED says nothing that changes anything they haven't already said, at one meeting or another. Another yawner.

    1372. scratch-skip. 1372. scratch-skip. 1372...
     
    #3024     Apr 27, 2011
  5. nitro

    nitro

    Nothing to stop SPX from 1372 except the "unknown unknowns" now. That is just short term. Longer term, 1450 is _easily_ imminent. At least as per model as of today. But there will be some profit taking at 1372. FWIW.
     
    #3025     Apr 27, 2011
  6. nitro

    nitro

    Should take profits here at ESM1 1370 (SPX would open about 1373 ish which is a zone of resistance).

    Hope for a pullback so you can get long again, because this is going much higher still....
     
    #3026     May 1, 2011
  7. nitro

    nitro

    Where to get in on the pullback? Ideally no higher than 1342, but it may easily go to say 1350 and take off again. On the other hand it may go back to somewhere around 1320 ish before heading higher.

    Who knows? Pick a spot where you are comfortable. If you use ITM 75 delta call options to get long, at say when SPX goes to 1350 (if), a drop to 1320 won't hurt that much. On the other hand, after going to 1350, the market may rally back to 1372, only to form double topish looking patterns that may stall it. Now you are sitting on a wasting asset. So perhaps sell a (ratio'ed ?)14xx (1425 ?) call against the ITM 75 delta call to alleviate theta, and buy back the short call(s) on a breakout of 1372.

    That is the art of trading! Choose an instrument, choose an entry, and forgive yourself because no one knows. I am pretty certain SPX goes much higher from here, but HOW it goes higher is just as important as when when using options.

    Note that the R/R here is beginning to get thin. In the above scenario, we are probably risking 30 handles * slowing delta, (probably 20) to make hopfully 75 from 1350 to say 1425. This is decent for sure, but not like it was before when you were risking 20 to make 100.
     
    #3027     May 2, 2011
  8. nitro

    nitro

    SPX ~1343. Must enter back long here imo. See above post as to an opinion on one of the multitude of ways on how to do it.

    You can sell the 1425 SPX call(s) options now (at the same time you go long a DIM call) in addition to being long a DIM call, if you think this is more likely to go sideways to lower, than it is to go back higher. Imo, I would not sell the 1425 call(s) until SPX was well on its way back to 1372, say at SPX 1365 to 1370, because I believe the market (SPX) is (quite) undervalued, within a strong trend higher in place. So sharp turns are likely. So when you go long here, I would not make it a spread initially. I would simply be 75 delta long, but you might choose to put on a spread at once. In this case, remember to do the long side first.

    We will remember to buy back the sold calls on a clean breakout of 1372 and let the long DIM call run, if we get there.
     
    #3028     May 4, 2011
  9. dont

    dont

    Yup like I said the top is in
     
    #3029     May 4, 2011
  10. And suddenly its "grossly undervalued"????
     
    #3030     May 5, 2011