Who says the model won't fade lower SPX, for example, like it has been saying for days now? The trend is strongly higher here. Even when the model says sell, it is often right there too. The problem is not that the model is predictive, it is that, I can't go into it...
FWIW: SPX 1298.44. FV 1330.73. Model opens mostly where it left off on Friday.That is a colossal long edge, since it rarely gives even 10 of long edge. As expected.
Japan pretty much as expected, with risk coming off. The uncertainty is still immense. As soon as some [catalyst] news is announced that shows commitment from the world, its markets will stabilize and maybe even bounce back. But we are not there yet.
Model completely blind to Geopolitical events: FWIW: SPX 1288.09. FV 1329.29. Minor support 1282. Real support 1272 - 1275.
Okay nitro...all the headlines for Japan are progressively worsening...in fairness, I'm not intelligent enough to know the implications for Japanese residents... Japanese officials say the nuclear fuel rods appear to be melting inside all three of the most troubled nuclearreactors - AP
Sometimes people miss the forest for the trees. When a coal power plant gets flooded, or has an explosion, there is zero risk of killing millions of people from a nuclear fallout, and the plant can be rebuilt. When a nuclear disaster occurs $4 billion+ is lost just in the cost of the building. There is a risk of fallout killing millions. Resources that could be used saving lives on the coast are devoted to preventing a world calamity. The land is forever lost and will have to be serviced every 100 years for thousands of years into the future. There is a major, major cost to nuclear that other power generation sources do not have.
Yeah, it is sickening because these people are so wounded, and yet these reactors continue to spiral out of control. Where is God when you need him? This is from a human death toll not as bad as Haiti. However, this is the worlds third or fourth largest economy, so the impact to markets is non-trivial. At this point though, the selling in the Nikkei is getting close to "white in the eyes" fear, imo. From all indications, the reactor situation is not dangerous. Still, it is hard not to shoot first and ask questions later when every day a new nuclear reactor explodes in a plume of smoke...
It is frustrating that the people that built these things didn't use a magnitude TEN, yes TEN, earthquake to engineer the reactors against failure from natural acts. Jesus we have 100 story buildings that would withstand it, but not a nuclear reactor???????!!!!!! Why ten, because it has never been recorded in human history since we have been taking records. The cost may have been prohibitive, I don't know... I understand what you are saying re fossil fuels, but dude seriously, fossil fuels have brought us to a terrible state as well. Granted, there are no nuclear reactors exploding every two days as a result of fossil fuels, but on the other hand the ENTIRE CONTINENT OF ANTARCTICA isn't melting with grave consequences TO THE ENTIRE HUMAN RACE because of these reactors either.
Sure doesn't help things when the IAEA declines to say whether Japan Event is 'Under Control'....that just crossed the Bloomberg Terminal at 13:19