If this escalates, it could put a serious headwind to markets on Monday: "Explosion at Japan Nuclear Plant, Disaster Toll Rises" http://www.aolnews.com/2011/03/12/e...oll-rises/?icid=maing|aim|dl1|sec1_lnk2|49757 Radiation appears contained, but if this turns into Chernobyl...
The event is mildly bullish on the market. It makes QE3 almost a certainty. The market was NOT pricing in QE3 yet. I think the middle east is a much bigger bear item for the market then Japan. I have yet to see a natural disaster take our markets lower. Markets are forward looking.
The Nikkei has very little correlation to our markets. The Nikkei was in a 20 year bear market while our markets quadrupled. Japan's economy has been a non item for decades now. All this event has done is lock in QE3 and it will cause people to pull money out of Japan and put in into our markets. Stop for a second and take a look at the disasters over the last 5 years. We traded higher on Katrina, on the Indonesia Tsunami, Haiti, etc. All were bull items. I'm not saying to be bullish on the markets because in my opinion, the middle east is 100 times worse then Japan. You realize we are on the brink of Nuclear war with Iran and a possible Iraq 2.0 with Libya. You think Japan is more important then these items? LOL.
I was talking about your flawled view that natural disasters and the destruction they bring are supposed to be good for stock markets. Try Reductio ad absurdum
I think you guy may be talking passed each other because you can both be right, on different time frames. In the short run, I will eat my hat if the Nikkei opens up Sunday, in fact it maybe down 3%, with SIFs probably down slightly in our overnight session from arb pressure. On the other hand, the BOJ will infuse huge amounts of liquidity, which eventually will rise the Nikkei .