Nomura Securities: Oil to Hit $220 http://www.wyattresearch.com/article/nomura-securities-oil-to-hit-220/22950
When we lose 1300, and it seems an 80% play at this point, the major support is 1272 with some minor support 1282. FWIW, FV with one key parameter "backed out" is 1299. Not backed out (using face value) is 1242.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------ That is interesting nitro, the western USA oil in your link. Look at this too. I know this is not to the topic of your thread, but is interesting company here:http://www.newjerseymining.com/press_release_current.html
I have no idea what is the right way to trade oil short term since I have no model for it. It would not surprise me to see oil sell off in the very short term. But imo, oil cannot continue at less than $100, _IF_ the rest of the commodity complex is where it is today. I suspect the FED will put an end to all this charade soon by raising IRs to .25% which may see a huge sell-off across the board in all asset classes. Just to scare people, they can't really raise rates that much with chronic unemployment...But zero (nominal) is clearly the wrong IR.
"US Cannot Confirm Rumors Gaddafi Shot; Oil Tumbles" http://www.cnbc.com/id/41764127 Hard to believe, but oil markets are smart, so I would not be surprised if true.