No, I distinguish between what my model says, and the market. I realize that my model could have just gone into the typical get stuck mode, but this time it truly feels different. I have acquired a kind of intuition for it, and I am confident that it has some truth to it.This version has been right so many times until very recently I can't even count. As the old saying goes though, the market can stay "irrational" longer than you can stay solvent. I just shrug my shoulders...You know, this is nowhere near as crazy as 1999 - 2001 with the NAZ at 5000. That was truly the height of hubris, but lots of people got incinerated along the way shorting it at every turn... Look at PCLN. You think that piece of shit is worth $460? I don't think it is worth $50!!!! GOOG? On a lucky day $400. CME? $200. NFLX? maybe $100. The list is endless. As long as there is a bigger fool to sell to, that is the price of whatever it is you are trying to sell something at, and the world is bursting with idiots. In fact, I am beginning to believe that the stupider you are, the better trader you are likely to make. Amazing that nature would optimize for morons. What is the "right" price for SPX? IMO About 1280, and that is being gracious.
Nitro, you don't think the market is currently cheap, I get it... but did you know that the corporate earnings of the S&P 500 are now at record levels? Did you realize that earnings have never in history been at higher levels than they are today? Now knowing this, why <i>shouldn't</i> the S&P trade at a price equal or greater than the old market top? This is a serious question for your consideration...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am not playing in the market. I am watching only because I do not understand enough, so I know this. I love to watch for now. Aaaaa, you win 100% all the time.
If I told you yes, would you believe me??? The funny thing is that all the info you need is right here on ET... and all for free! All you need to do is BELIEVE