Actually the thread got interesting when he started with the idea of fair value, the generally accepted definition can be found at indexarb. Then he added a second fair value and a third, also he should have simply started a journal in the "journal" section, for some reason his mighty intellect couldn't quite grasp that, the mods really should have moved it at some point. I think Nitro is very intelligent, maybe too intelligent for the mkt, which can get you into trouble. Also, I thought it was strange that he wanted to post here but wouldn't disclose any real information about the model. Carry on.
if I am not mistaken Nitro explained what he meant by MMs and FV. MM = liquidity providers, FV - is his own fair value calculations. maybe i misremember what he said but i don't want to go back and look for those definitions. so he uses his own definitions - not a big deal.
For those that care, I have done it. FV is able to explain the variability in SPX. To be fair, what I have come to realize is that the absolute level is almost meaningless, only its relation to its inputs, and those relationships are what is trade-able. Also to be fair, some inputs require prediction on my part, which I do "by hand" at this pont. However, it is not terribly hard to predict this one input, e.g., using a GARCH(1, 1) model for this particular input will probably do at least as well as my guesses. I wish that I were rich. I would actually write an article on it and explain the model in detail, even giving a website that can be used to track it and the inputs. Believe it or not, it is the intellectual challenge for me that is greatest. However, I live in the real world that requires me to earn a living and provide for those who are incapable of sustaining themselves at this point. So I can't. I only write this to tell you that it has been a long road, way too many years invested. Would I do it all over again given what I have given up? No. "Life must be lived forward, but can only be understood backwards." - Soren Kierkegaard
nothing stays the same, it's either gettitng better or it's get worse, sounds like it's looking up for ya
For those that are looking to short, tonight may be well timed. I doubt tomorrow survives a green day. In fact, -2% or more seems likely. S ES 1302.75
That's a bold call, stop on that? I mean if you're looking for down 20+ I dont expect to see a 1 point loser or a 1 point winner.
I hope so. I bought some SPY puts 2 mins before close. Unfortunately, I complete forgot tomorrow is non-farm today. big oops for me. Don't like to gamble like that normally. We'll see.
Time stop. I will look at it at 3:00 PM CT and then again at 3:15 CT tomorrow. Points against me won't stop me out.