It just isn't system, so I need to keep those seperate from FV trades. 1205 SPX is an automatic sell, and 1172 - 1182 is probably 85% odds on now. Timing is everything though. I would work like mad this week. Stay up all night tonight, and get off a short either today/tomorrow, into Opts ex. Note this is my opinion, I can't take these trades because they are not system.
What do you think of this scenario: recent market retreat may lead to currency traders to think that a printer is heading to the xerox room, which may lead to weaker dollar reprice, and a rise in stocks?
Bernanke is under tremendous duress, and if he throws QE3 at the world, we may literally have people rioting on the streets of he US with the army called in to order. Therefore, imo your scenario seems very unlikely. I feel bad for the guy actually. He has a hammer in want of a nail, granted, it is a giant hammer, but it is a hammer non the-less. Worse, he is a theorist grounded in one data point, the example of the Great Depression. The world is so vastly different now, I don't know how he can not see that trying to inflate the economy in a trickle down manner can work. I don't even care about inflation at this point, fuck it, let the bitch out of the bag. Just let the outcome be the creation of some fucking jobs! The only way out of this hole is a major restructuring of the US. There are several ways this can happen, but the lowest hanging fruit is for investors to punish corporations that don't reinvest in the US. For that to happen, people have to take control of their own investing, out of mutual funds and into their own hands. Then, invest in companies that pay tax here, that repatriate their dollars back home. That have a common purpose with their neighbors at home. To hire workers here. Lower the friggin minimum wage to zero. I am serious. Unions have to give in on this one. It is better to work for free or for a cantine of soup than it is to be at home collecting unemployment and welfare food stamps. It makes you whole. Do something other than this idiotic throwing money at the people that don't need it and hope they spend it! Colonize the moon, make an industry of it getting rare earth metals from it. It has to be government lead, like computers were, like the highway system, like so many other things that eventually trickled down to the common man. Rebuild the electric grid. Again, probably a government initiative at first. Do something other than just pumping liquidity into the system, hope that rich people will trickle it down. Who knows, maybe it will work.
BTW, FV is projected at about 1197.84, which is almost exactly where SPX closed. As I write this, ESZ0 is trading at 1190.75, which would make SPX at about 1193.75. So FV is suggesting ES is slightly undervalued here, by about 4 handles.