In fact, SPX is nothing more than one of the many eigenvalues of an rank-n (mixed) tensor, whose parameters at any given time slice is the eigenvector, who in turn, correspond to fixed points of self-maps of a (weighted) projective space. "Support and resistance" is nothing more than the realization that there exist many eigenvalues to a tensor, as opposed to a single value in a vector-space (matrix). The entire set of eigenvalues are the "harmonics" of the tensor (in Fourier space). This seems so obvious now, I don't know why it took me so long to see it. That I am only returning one value means I can trade it, but the entire spectrum of eigenvalues is guess what, the chain, or an entire vector of FVs!!! So the chain is no longer something that is empirical and is put in by hand, it is spit out by the model itself!! It would be interesting to see when the spectrum of eigenvalues corresponded with expert chartists S&R levels...
Ok, you're way smarter than everyone else here... We get it! Flexing your cognitive biceps with a message nobody else is smart enough to understand isn't necessary. Not for me at least, since I've conceded the fact that you've got at least 15 IQ points on me since I first met you. Respect as trader, though? That you won't get until you finally figure out how to make money trading. That's not gong to change, sorry. So instead of showing off your intellect, why not figure out a way to harness that mental prowess by coming up with a plan that uses your full brainpower <b>while blocking out your personality elements that are stopping you from being profitable</B>? Your tendency to over-intellectualize everything is one likely culprit that you'll need to figure out a way to maneuver around. Your Pollyannic over-optimism is another. What you're doing now isn't working, Nitro! Change it somehow so that your mental talents are applied, but your defects blocked. Then you'll get the monetary satisfaction that is worth a thousand times more than all the intellectual gratification in the world! What to change, and how? Man, I don't know. You're smarter than me... you can figure it out.
But I am trying to figure it out It's amazing that people think I am doing this to prove that I am smarter than anyone else. I am just being me! It is as if you saw a fish swimming, and you accused it of showing off in the water! These are notes to _myself_ !! Why can't people take that on face value and not read anything else into it? If the way I am approaching doesn't work, then I may never get it, just like you can't explain to a fish how to run.
Look, how about this: You need to dumb yourself down just to be able to communicate with any of the normal non-genius people that surround you, right? Well, how about also trying to dumb yourself down when talking (trading) with the market? The market isn't as smart as you are, simply because 99.99% of the participants that make the prices move aren't as smart as you either. So dumb it down a bit when thinking about price! The price movements of indices and other trading vehicles aren't as sophisticated as you make them out to be. It's just people buying and selling stuff, and the prices changing due to varying supply and demand... that's all it is. It's not Einstein's Fifth Movement or any fancy intellectual shit like that, it's just a bunch of guys buying and selling stuff to each other, get it?! Simplify your mission! All you need to do is figure out where the price of anything is most likely to be after any set amount of time you choose passes. That's it! Is the price of Stocks or Euros or Debt or Corn likely to be higher or lower than now in a month's time (or a week, or a day, etc.), and why should it move there? Will people want to pay more or less for SPX in two hours from now, and why? Data mining can tell you that, if you figure out what you're looking for. Mine more data, find repeating patterns, and only then will you be ready to program anything. Steaming forward on a hunch and your wild optimism alone isn't cutting it. The market has no 'fair value', Pekelo is right you know. Forget any notion of a 'fair value' that doesn't exist, dumb yourself down to the market's level, and figure out where future prices are most likely to be. That's all. Then you'll have what you're looking for.
Well, do you have some source code that you can show me that quantifies how I can decide whether to buy and sell from the premise that the markets are "just a bunch of people buying and selling stuff" ? If you cannot provide code, can you at least convey to me what you mean, and I will codify that see below... "You got the brains, I got the looks, let's make lots of money".... BTW, I do have a system that is really simple and is awesome on several days in predicting SP, and I could explain it to a cat. I found it by data mining. It is a cog in FV, but it could easily be traded on it's own. Problem is, it only trades a few times a month...If you hit hard on those days though...
maybe this is what RM does: he has patterns that he data-mined over the years using his brain or other tools. the patterns work well but are rare. so he hits hard on those days when his patterns come up. apparently he has made good money over the years but his approach is prone to drawdowns (e.g. not all his years are profitable). it is late, the markets are closed so i have decided to speculate a bit on ET.
Well, then let's code them up, scale them, and make lots of money! I am also planning on going to the moon and mining it for rare earth metals. Guaranteed to find lots of them.
i bet those patterns are non-scale-able. in addition they occasionally stop working. there is nothing wrong with searching for the Holy Grail as long as Nitro does not put all his eggs in that basket.
All I do is compute (and post it until I don't) a number through a model, and either that number has edge or it doesn't. If it does and has use to you, use it, if it doesn't, don't use it. This phenomena is interesting though, and it shows up all over in human psychology. Like the people that complain about CNBC. Don't look at it if it bothers you! LMAO!