in early march the older NFV gave a slip and remained stubbornly short as the market kept moving higher. would the latest NFV incarnation had handled it better?
I am resigned to admit that VNFV (very new fair value) is being hatched at this very moment. It will correct all the deficiencies of FV and NFV. Stay tuned. VNFV 1168.50
1130 will be blasted thru on the open tomorrow so I thought I would get it over with tonight... Took the first byte of this most disgusting sample of human waste ever to be consumed. Bear Grylls has nothing on me at this point. At least I was man enough to admit defeat and consume a self generated bacon-strip sandwich as proof.
Finally I got the impostor thingy, well, that shortie guy is on my ignore... As much as nltro might be an asshole, he does have a point.(but he goes on ignore anyway) The old FV didn't work, and as this recent fiasco proves, the NFV isn't much better. Let's face it, it is nothing but a glorified Martingale system. If the position goes 35 pts against your first entry that means: 1. Your edge for the first entry was nonexistent. 2. You are trading against the trend.... So maybe it is time to reevaluate the whole thinking behind the "I know better where the market should be" notion...
No, that thing thinks the "FV" of the market is about 950. You have to know when a system has gone bad, and when it loses because it did the right thing! NFV moved in the direction of SPX when it too saw the inflationary pressures that Japan is forcing on the world. You may or may not buy my rigged theory, but imo at least 50% of this move is due to participants that got a whiff of that move. Either there is a way to tell that huge currency interventions are imminent that my model does not see, or "they" got the information illegally and acted on it sending the market 80 handles higher on almost no volume. Add to that the timing of it may have exacerbated the problem, i.e., quad witching... If too many of these events happen and NFV is not able to function, then I will no longer be able to assign it to "bad luck", and we will have to start looking in the mirror and NFV will have to evolve or die. Right now, we are batting .750. I think you guys are on tilt.
i appreciate you sharing this with us and no system works 100%,if it did you would be shot or paid off
not on tilt here. i agree with ammo that no system can be perfect every time. do you think that it was a red flag when SPX went too quickly from oversold (~-30 points) to overbought (+30 points and more)? could this type of a jump be a warning sign for the future signals?
I would be careful of over fitting, every trading system gets torpedoed every now and then, it does not prove its not working. You can't take this market to seriously, shit like this happens, its part of the costs.
I don't think so. I don't keep that sort of statistic. My initial instinct is that we would be over-thinking it...