Full convergence and beyond: "NFV" 1176.38. SPX 1173.30. NFV is above SPX, a rarity. 1182 ish SPX was support. 1172 is major support. SPX in grave danger of 10% correction on a close below 1172.
"NFV" 1163.74. SPX $1163.68. It seems that to the downside, NFV is more accurate than it is to the upside.
Well, what I have noticed is that they almost always diverge when SPX goes higher, but the two go lower mostly coincidently (that could be the result of massive liquidity driven markets at this point. Higher is almost always based on optimism rather than cold hard facts). A key question is how often does "NFV" converge towards SPX, and how often does NFV follow SPX. For example, here "NFV" is 1163.76 and SPX is $1171.05. That is still within the realm of "efficient", since seven handles is not enough edge. It is still too early to tell how useful it is. Some people will tell you that you constantly have to adapt your signals since the market is schizophrenic and is constantly shifting what it deems important. I honestly believe that NFV has captured something fundamental about markets, and that if I went back and tested it ten, twenty or thirty years ago, I would find that it is useful over very large time frames. In other words, the difference between SPX and NFV is stationary, which is extremely useful statistical property. Another way that NFV can be used is indirectly. For example, say you have three systems, A does well in strong trending markets, B does well in mean reverting markets, and C is a system that outputs the best symbols to have together in a portfolio. If NFV can be used to allocate resources by weighting a system more than another given that it has some predictive value into the regime the market is in on say weekly to monthly time frames, this could be fantastically useful to a short term hedge fund/trader. Is it useful to the typical ET trader that wants to take $1k to $100k in three days? Almost certainly not. It is at best a "swing" type indicator at this point.
did you mean "the typical ET pico-fund manager"? SPX seems to have started to overshoot NFV with the recent downside moves. previously they converged perfectly to ~1pt several times if i remember correctly. the downside momentum is stronger right now it seems.
SPX support 1150. Then critical support 1142. If 1142 goes, something like 1080 to 1100 is odds on, imo.
"NFV" has collapsed and is predicting a strong correction to SPX. "NFV" 1136.04. A breakdown of 1150 SPX imminent, imo.