Kudos to MMs

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by nitro, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. don't worry about it, i was just idly curious.

    there is a sort of philosophical aspect about building models: when one should discard an outdated model. i understand that as you are going along, you learn more and the newer models supersede the old ones because you are confident that the new ones are simply better. in other words, you think that there is not much value in old models because all important aspects you learned from them are incorporated in the newest one.
     
    #1391     Apr 19, 2010
  2. nitro

    nitro

    The old model pointed me in the right direction, but it was incomplete in the face of adaptation. In retrospect, I didn't heed my own advice to "fail fast", I hung on too long. It is very difficult to do when you don't have a complete picture. For example, there are systems where on average they underperform the SPX in any given five month period in two years, but over the entire length they handily beat it if you hang on in a disciplined manner. How did I know this was not the case in "FV"?

    I only realized this when my understanding became more complete. Then it was obvious. In fact, it is amazing now that I have a more complete picture just how efficient SPX is in the short term.
     
    #1392     Apr 19, 2010
  3. nitro

    nitro

    "NFV" ~1188
     
    #1393     Apr 20, 2010
  4. nitro

    nitro

    "NFV" ~1184
     
    #1394     Apr 21, 2010
  5. nitro

    nitro

    "NFV" ~1173
     
    #1395     Apr 22, 2010
  6. nitro

    nitro

    "NFV" went out at ~1175, with SPX @ 1,208.67. That is a substantial divergence. I don't know what to think.
     
    #1396     Apr 22, 2010
  7. dont

    dont

    Whats the old FV?
     
    #1397     Apr 23, 2010
  8. nitro

    nitro

    "NFV" ~1189. Big move from yesterday.
     
    #1398     Apr 23, 2010
  9. nitro

    nitro

    "NFV" ~ 1192.61. Strongly correcting towards SPX.
     
    #1399     Apr 23, 2010
  10. That's the one that bankrupted Nitro, but that's not important right now.....
     
    #1400     Apr 23, 2010