It isn't me that is bearish, it is my metrics. When I did the equations, I wasn't thinking, ok let me put in a bearish bias! I am telling you that is what the equations spit out. Here, to the second, "NFV" of SPX 1165.43 Can it go higher? Pffft, if you can see $150 oil or 5000 Naz, you can see anything.
As far as I can tell, MMs are long gamma with a long bias, so every time the market sells off, they buy back some deltas and try to get delta neutral, meanwhile collecting gamma profits. Vola is so cheap, why not. The idiot mutual funds have made it infinitely more expensive for themselves for not realizing they have set this regime. So getting a bargain is now close to impossible. They may have well been playing poker with their hands flipped over on the table face up. I honestly have no idea what could take this market down this month. Next month is a different story, but even then, it would likely be towards the end of the month. Selling SPX 1170ish is pretty obvious (anticipating 1172 real resistance), but each time it gets to this level, there is a greater chance of a breakout to the upside. You could sell it again if it goes there (this time raise the anticipation closer to 1172), but don't go to that well too many times. I can barely tell you what is going to happen in the next five minutes (I _might_ have a 5% to 10% edge over even), let alone predict a top on a daily, weekly, monthly, or god forbid a yearly chart. FWIW, real money goes into NQ/ES on short term "NFV" plays, so if it doesn't work, I eat dog food.
It is my own proprietary real-time SPX computation. It is not in the public domain. "It" works fantastically well, but I find that I cannot quite yet turn my brain off and have a computer trade it auto. I still have to trade around it "by hand" based on my feel as a trader. Putting an automated system around it occupies a large part of my waking hours. I don't like that it is not auto because then it is close to impossible to tell what is it that is making money, me or the equation. If I can't repeat it, I can't throw huge sums of money at it, nor can I convince someone else to. I am a terrible liar, but if I believe in something I can convince the Pope to let me date his daughter. Besides, it pisses me off that I don't have a HF futures trading system when I know they exist and do quite well.
Take a look at the CPI release. Good luck getting a fed hike with the yoy core CPI at a six year low. There wont be a fed hike this year and likely not one next year as well(MAYBE mid-late 2011)
It might happen, even though I believe it will be a poor decision. As of next month, I expect the long bonds yields to start going higher. The short end of the curve will probably reluctantly go slightly higher too, but at some point it will be anchored to some very low rate until the FED signals it is ready to raise rates. The YC will steepen. Ahahahahaha Ahahahahaha