"Chevron pipeline attacked in Nigeria by gunmen" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chevr...9.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode= Oil went out on Friday at ~$83. This news will probably drive it up another $2. The foot is holding the head down, and the trigger is cocked...
Congratulations. I certainly thought 1140 SPX was way less likely than say 950. I way underestimated the power of liquidity. But the lessons are incorporated into "NFV".
Is VIX too cheap? 17.50? Markets are selling short term vola, and buying long term vola. I would not be fooled into the illusion of low risk by looking at front month VIX.