Strange action. So let's get this straight, dollar is rallying on the back of the unemployment number, based on the outlook of higher interest rates faster than most are anticipating. So far, no problemo. My problem is with tech holding up better than the DOW and SPX? Zero chance. That makes no sense.
JUN FFFs doubled odds of a FED raise to 72%. The March are close to my value of 25% chance. Getting interesting.
Interestingly enough, "NFV" is not budging and in fact has gone higher "NFV" ~1125 It is almost as if the market is saying, sure, there was a "reflective" dollar "carry trade" where cheap US money was used to fuel the (global) rally. Fine, that is over, we will just shift over to the YEN when the FED raises rates and continue buying US equities. As I said once before, the liquidity excess isn't just US dollars, it is anything that can be converted into US dollars. The whole world has to raise rates in unison, or it creates regional bubbles.
If the Fed hikes FF while still buying mortgages in the open market I might very well quit trading. I'm serious