Totally agree. The world caught a chill, America partied. Sound familiar? But the desire rally does not seem to be shaping up.
I fail to see how these" FV" figures are actionable. Can someone please explain the purpose of these figures. Thank you
It is a long term equilibrium. The model does not take into consideration short term liquidity excess which makes it blind to short term "momentum". I know this will sound like a mysterious statement to you, but I am in the same place with this model that theoretical physicists were before they discovered SuperSymmetry. I have a low energy version of the model, i.e., "FV", but I lack the high energy version. http://science.jrank.org/pages/3095/Grand-Unified-Theory.html My model lacks the extra symmetry that would allow for accounting of what we are seeing. I know the ingredients that would make it "supersymmetric" but I don't know what the equation is yet.
Ok, I have new equations. I will continue to post the old number under "FV" and the new number under "NFV". It still does not have all the symmetries that a fully "supersymetric field theory" of markets would have, but I am in no hurry. The one problem with "NFV" is that it is far more agile than "FV" and should be monitored on a minute by minute basis, and there is no way I am going to post once a minute. Still, it gives a rough estimate. "NFV" ~1100