Trades for 11-24-03 Well since I missed the morning move there really was not too much for me to work with. Lack of signals coupled no momentum throughout the afternoon could have had me sitting in tiny little chopped up peices right, fortunately i think I did pretty good today considering the conditions. Trade #1: Short @ 1047.75, Stop @ 1049.00, Cover @ 1048.25, -.5 pts 11:25 I got in this trade as the averages crossed, the market started to go straight down, but then hit a really hard support area and went straight back up, I saw that as a result of this the once crossed moving averages were now uncrossed I immediately exited the trade for a small loss. Trade #2: Short @ 1049.5, stop @ 1050.5, Cover @ 1049.75, -.25 pts 12:39 This trade was also short, I saw multiple divergences between the ticks and the new highs the market was making coupled with the fact that the average daily range was close by I was awaiting a short play for about 1-2 points in the late afternoon. I got into this trade right as the averages crossed however upon the crossing of the averages I saw that the slope of the averages was still turned up and not down, this immediately signaled to me I was on the wrong side of the market so I got out of the trade for a very small loss. So today was definetly not the day for my system. Tomorrow I am anticipating a reversal at some point in the day considering the markets range today (see 80-20s in street smarts by connors and rachke). Once I saw the slim jim form this afternoon I started looking at the 10 minute chart for confirmation and entry of my trades. I am happy with how I traded today because I was able to keep my losses very very small considering how bad I could have been chopped up in the afternoon. Profit/Loss for day: -.75 pts Overall Profit/Loss: 20.00 pts Btw I did not trade on friday and for the rest of the week my plans are up in the air, I will trade tomorrow, however the chances of me trading on wednesday and friday are pretty low considering the lack of action that will likely happen.
Trades for 11-25-03 Trade #1: Long @ 1053.25, stop @ 1051, cover @ 1054.25, +1 pt 7:35 I used a wider stop on this trade. I have noticed that around the first hour or so (more on first hour trading later), that i need to use wider stops and be more willing to take profits, the exception to this rule (as far as taking profits go) is the 7 o clock reversal. Trade #2: Short @ 1053.00, stop @ 1054.00, Cover @ 1051.5, +1.5 pts 8:50 This trade was really quick, was able to take profits really fast after entry. didn't want to hang around to long going into lunch hour Trade #3: Short @ 1056.25, stop @ 1057.75, cover @ 1053.5 +2.75 pts 12:35 I had been waiting for this trade for a while. The market was really sluggish going into and through 1056. Each 5 minute bar was only making a new high by one tick or so. Also there were extreme readings on the TICK and the market was just not there to confirm these readings with movement. I waited really patiently on this one and then when the averages crossed I went for it. The market dove immediately and I was able to hold on for a while before bailing out right near the close (and subsequent short covering) This was one of my better trades to date. Profit/Loss for day: 5.25 pts Overall Profit/Loss: 25.25 pts Nice day despite a small range. As far as what I mentioned on trading the first half hour of the market opening I have had trouble doing this via the 3 and 5 minute charts and have never really attempted to trade anything besides the 7 o clock reversal. Recently I have been watching the 1 minute chart for the opening. I will post some sample charts as to why I think that this may be a good idea to trade the opening via this along with todays trades. I will not be trading on wednesday but may trade friday. Have a good thanksgiving everyone.
kserra are you using anything else besides just the MA's? RSI, MACD, STOCH? or are you only using the MA's crossing? What made you decide to use a VWMA over the other ma's(wma, sma, ema etc?)
I only use the MAs, the reason I chose the vwma was because when compaged to the other MAs i tested it gives a better idea as to the true turning points of the market, also the weight of those turning points. I have only experimented with SMA and EMA, the sma is actually very similar to vwma, but the vwma gives a better idea of what is taking place in the market, the EMA gives far too many false signals when compared with the vwma, this is likely due to the heavier weights on the more recent bars. But to be totally honest I didn't really look at these averages too much, I am going over some of them now compared with the vwma and I am noticing that the emas do a good job of predicting morning moves, maybe something to consider as I have been having trouble with the early mornings. The reason that I don't use anything other than these MAs is that I don't like to clutter up my screen and rely on lagging indicators (although mas are a lagging indicator) these indicators may give me a reason to stay in a trade when i know that I shouldn't (a.k.a false hope). If you have any ideas to add that you may use or may seem to effective please let me know.
i use a similar strategy, except i use a WMA, on a 5 minute chart, for the setup and 1 min chart for the entry, on the YM. i also use MACD on a 3,20,8 setting to help confirm the trade.
If you don't mind do you think you could post a recent trade setup, I would be interested in how you enter and exit ?
here's a short trade i made similar to your last trade of the day, normally if i just used a five minute chart, i would have entered at 15:40, after the 15:35 bar had closed showing the downtrend, but with the 1 min chart i can see the downtrend begun much earlier, allowing me to make a couple of extra ticks. on both charts, the EMA's on the MACD had also crossed and the MACD was comming down from being slightly overbought. if you look at 15:26/27 on the 1 min chart, it would appear an uptrend is going to continue, but the 5 min chart showed congestion from about 15:15 and the MACD was sloping down.
THis is very intereting I had considered the idea of taking my entries from the 3 minute and then using the 5 minute for guidance, I had also considered using the MACD as well. I like the way that you use this setup it looks very intriguing I will have to study it quite a bit before it will be of any use to me, however I am considering incorporating it into my trading. Just out of curiosity how many trades do you take a day ? Do you only trade the dow mini or do you trade other markets as well ? Do you use s/r to look for turning points ? What type of risk reward are you looking for ? thanks your insight has proved to be very valuable.