The simple answer to this is no, but there is more to it than this. Sometimes I choose to enter off of the three minute then the 5 minute will often confirm this move. There is usually point on the three minute that is serving as support and resistance and before I enter a trade I like to have this point broken by one tick. The reason I like to enter this way is because it can be difficult to enter and frustrating to watch the market run away with profit that you could be getting in on.
Trades for 1-12-04 I have noticed that my trading in the afternoon is much better than my trading in the morning. Therefore until I can either figure out what is going wrong in the morning or find a better way to trade the mornings I am only going to be trading the afternoons. Trade #1 Long @ 1122.25, sell @ 1123.75 +1.5 pts 10:25: Trade entry was originally taken off of the three minute the profit target was adjusted for the 5 minute chart. This was a good trade because as soon as I had my profit target I placed a limit order at 1123.75, and was very happy to get a fill there even though price took off for a little more. Trade #2: Short @ 1124.00, stop @ 1125.25, cover @ 1125.00 - 1 pt 11:10 Another trade entry taken from the 3 minute and then the 5 minute confirmed the move. I was looking for price to move down to 1122 and had a limit order in there. Price went in my favor after a long sideways move. However there turned out to be much more support below than I had originally thought. Awash brought up a good point that in a situation such as this one I should look to be trailing a stop when price goes in my favor that much. Something I will work on/look into. The only mistake in this trade was not getting out of it slightly sooner because of the reverse signal that was generated to the long side. THis reverse signal happened so quickly I did not have time to act. Profit/Loss on the day: +.5 pts I will work on the same things I mentioned on friday as well as staying away from the morning session.
Trades for 1-13-04 Trade #1: Short @ 1117.25, stop trailed stopped out at 1118.25, -1 pt 10:00 Trade went in my favor for a bit and I trailed a stop closely behind, ended up getting stopped out. Trade #2: Long @ 1118.5, stop trailed stopped out at 1117.5, -1 pt 10:20: Pretty much a stop and reverse fromm the other trade. Same deal trade went in my favor got stopped out at trailing stop. Trade #3 Short @ 1117.00, stop @ 1119.5, cover @ 1113.75 +3.25 pts 11:15 Great trade after waiting through the range and the false breakout I took this trade. I was very good about holding my ground on this trade and I placed my buy stop immediately. I got filled on the exact low of the day!!! I was pretty happy with this trade as I was able to weather the chop before price eventually dropped Trade #4 Long @ 1116.00 trailed stop too tight stopped out 1116.00 scratch 11:55 Saw this trade coming after I noticed the TRIN shooting to extreme levels and therefore was anticipating a turnaround here. Well I got the turnaround and I had a sell stop placed at 1118.5, when price began to retrace I had already moved my stop to breakeven and when 1116.00 was hit I got out. Really kicked myself after this trade because had the stop not been too tight would have had a much better day. Immediately after I got out of this trade I realized what I had done as price went rocketing right to my profit target. +1.25 pts on the day Tomorrow work on discipline, trail stops but not so tight.
Trades for 1-14-04 Not many trading opportunities for my system today. At some point I will need to create a trend following system to cope with days like today. Trade #1: Long @ 1123.5, sell @ 1125.5 +2 pts 10:15 Trade was taken off a very good signal in which price bottomed off of the low of the day and the open. Rode the trade for two points than exited. Trade #2: Short @ 1124.5, cover @ 1125.75, - 1.25 pts 10:55: Although you cannot see it on the chart here this trade the MAs originally crossed, I felt it was a good setup because of previous s/r in this area, however the Mas soon uncrossed upon the release of the FED beige book and I got taken out of the trade. Trade #3: Short @ 1128.5, cover @ 1129.25 -.75 pts 12:30: This signal was quite late however I did not think we were going to break the high of the day and also we got a good crossover at this point. I entered the trade however price was unable to break the 1128.00 area and the trade resulted in a quick loss a buy signal was soon generated the other way. I did not take the buy signal however because I felt the signal was too late in the day. Even point wise on the day I felt that today showed that I will need at some point some sort of trading system that will allow me to play the pullbacks on days like today. I also need to make sure that my boredom does not get the best of me on days like today because it will result in losses like last two trades.
Keep up the great work. Glad to see that you have actually gone live. Its been a difficult market for me to trade the last month; but it looks like your fine tuning your system and wish you the best of success. Dominic
Over the next few days/weeks I will be testing a new system I am working on to allow me to better trade trending environments. The system as of now is just beginning devlopment however from what I am looking at right now I am going to use a 3 minute chart to define the entry into the market place . The system uses the same moving averages I am using right now and uses the MACD for confirmation of the move. The system can be summed up as follows: For longs (shorts are reversed): When in a trending environment (Need to quantitatively define this) look to enter on a pullback. Pullback is defined as a cross of the 3 and 10 MAs in the opposite direction of the trend, this usually coincides with some sort of consolidation and higher lows. Look to enter when previous high of bar is taken out. The stop point is defined as two ticks from the previous low, the profit target = entry - stop point. Like I said right now I am still working on this but it should be a good way to play the trend I will add rules and create a finalized plan for trading before I go live with it.
Trades for 1-15-04 I woke up late today and missed one trade, the next trade I took off of the 3 minute, the chart included is therefore a 3 minute chart. Trade #1 Short @ 1132, cover @ 1129.5 +2.5 pts 11:40: This trade was taken off of the 3 minute I entered on the wide bar was originally looking to get to 1128.5 but decided against it, and took 1129.5 when it was given to me. Trade seemed to work out nicely. Paper trade using new system Short @ 1131.25, cover @ 1130 Trade taken off of 3 minute original stop set to 1132.5 trade took a while to pan out and it looks like the trend has sort of petered out likely due to the fact of how late in the day this trade was. Profit/loss on the day 2.5 pts