Welcome to live bullets. Interesting first day, and not unlike most of us have had (and still have...its like you saw some entries in my journal, lol). Congrats on making it through and for having the courage to post the bad with the good. Things that seem so clear and easy in the simulator morph into bizarre monsters with real cash on the line. Its funny how the simple introduction of fear and greed can change things, even on the subconscious level. Anyway, I just wanted to post a note of encouragement and say that your desire to stick with the plan is the right mentality to have going into day two. Best of luck.
kserra, even if you weren't completely happy with your trading it's good you stuck to your stops. Still waiting for that chart.
Chart for 1-5-04 This chart will likely draw a lot of criticism concerning my stops, however the only problem I notice with my stops is on trade #1 where I should have kept the stop further out. Trade #1: The biggest problem here was that I moved my stop in too close too soon. The reason I did this is because like I said before I was trying to shoot all the lights out on this one trade, when I saw that price was not going to go where I thought it was I tightened my stop, however this would have been a winning trade had I been able to keep my stop where it was, and if I had measured my expected profit target using the method I usually use, this profit target would have been 1 point. Trade #2: bad trade, don't stop and reverse, however this was a good signal for me to get out of the first trade because of the recross in the other direction. The other thing with this trade is that even if I had played it perfectly, it would have not mattered, because there was little to no profit to be had. Trade #3: Possibly could have used a wider stop, but I am noticing a common problem with these trades where I risk less than one point (as defined by my system), the problem is that these trades often occur in dead markets therefore getting to the point where I could get filled on my profit target is very difficult. Everyone in #futurestrades was neutral as could be at this point and no one was really looking to do anything, however I decided to step forward and be the hero, didn't work out so hot now did it ? So what did I learn today ? - Always enter the market knowing exactly where I am going to exit (realistic exits only please) - Avoid dead market trades, or times where direction is uncertain, this means avoid points where the trade requires you to risk less than one point, however I have considered that these trades may need wider stops in order to play out correctly, but I feel that the probability of them playing out realistically is not high enough because of slippage - Do not let preconceived opinions influence market decision, Guess why I did not take the final trade of the day ? Because I thought there was no way the market was going to go through 1118 based on how it acted earlier and once the cross did occur I was too sure in my opinion that the market would not travel past the 1118 point to take the trade late even @ 1117.75 this trade would have been great, but my big head wouldn't let me take it. - Reboot at lunch time, even computers need rest - Trade like a soldier, I always thought the Art of trading take off from the Sun Tzu book was a stupid idea, but now I see where these ideas are important. You must know exactly what you are going to do and when and where you are going to do it otherwise you might as well fire bullets in the air and pray that they hit the enemy. Well that is all I can think of right now, I am off to get some rest for tomorrow, will post my official trading plan shortly.
I see what you are saying and this will be a bigger problem when the S&P index Average daily range eventually expands, however for now this is the plan and I intend to take no more than an 8 point loss on a day. If you think about it though this would mean this situation is not very likely to occur very often the way I have the system setup to use risk right now.
Just curious as to why there was no buy signal in your system at the point indicated on the attached chart. Your trading plan indicates that you also look for points of support and resistance. At the point indicated, the market bounced off a second test of a daily support area, confirmed by the WMA cross, Price / MACD divergence and a MACD buy signal. This ended up being a higher probability trade. Charles
I don't trade during the time you indicated (lunch time/dead time 12:00 - 1:30) therefore I would not take that signal.
Trades for 1-6-04 Although today I did not end up being gross profitable I felt I made some major advances in my trading, and I learned more about myself and my method as well. Trade #1: Short @ 1117.25, stop @ 1119.75, stopped out, -2.5 pts 7:08: I began the day with a big time bearish bias. I knew we were overextended and felt that we were due for a correction, once again this was sort of the hero trade, although it did follow my parameters for entering, I held on for too long but still obeyed my original stop. After I entered price never really came back, I realized we were in a choppy market and there was no absolute direction at this point, but I remained in the trade because I kept clinging onto hope that my trade would come back. Obviously it never did. This trade taught me something about playing the first hour and playing the chop, this led to some new rules for my trading plan. This trade basically screwed me on the day. Trade #2: Short @1119.5, Cover 1119.5, scratch 8:24: Oh man great entry, Great setup, just being stupid, I got frightened because I had yet to book a profit trading ES so far at this time. Price came down a little bit and then I got scared really scared when price barely went against me. My initial stop was never in jeopardy whatsoever. But I chickened out on this trade, when I entered my profit target was 1118-1118.25 which of course was eventually hit. At this point I took lunch, well actually second breakfast and thought about what I needed to do, I envisioned myself as the trading sniper, stalking my pray patiently then pulling the trigger (exiting) when my profit target came through my sights. This vision while sort of strange really helped me. I was having trouble with the conviction in my trade profit targets because of yesterdays mishap with trying to be the hero. But I realized that today I was creating realistic targets for myself. This gave me the confidence to get back on the battlefield and begin trading again. Trade #3: Short @ 1119.75, stop @ 1121.25, cover @ 1118.25 +1.25 pts 10:21: All I can say about this trade is GREAT DISCPLINED TRADING will equal profits. I took this trade missed my original entry point, but stuck with my profit target which was hit quite quickly. I got out and booked my first profit ever on the ES. This was the confidence booster I needed and helped to fuel the rest of my trading day. 10:50 There is another signal here I did not take, I was too busy stalking the market from a short perspective waiting for a breakdown to take it, more on this in my rules down below. Trade #4: Short @ 1119.75, stop @ 1121.75, cover @ 1120.25 - .5 pts 11:12: Despite the fact that this trade was a loss it was still a good trade. I executed well, and did not get impatient I knew that if we really broke down through 1119, then 1118 would likely follow, but it didn't happen, instead I saw the beginning of buy signal forming on the 3 and 5 minute charts. I jumped out of the trade knowing that we were now changing directions no matter what I thought. Trade #5: Long @ 1020.25, sell @ 1121.25 +1 pt 11:40: This was simply the reverse from the trade I had taken earlier. Same thing good trading equaled good profits and I was able to pull a point from the market here and was very satisfied with this trade. After this trade I got no signals early enough to be taken before the close, also I was hesitant to step in front of the very unpredictable stampede of bulls that took off this afternoon. Well that about sums up my day for today, and besides trades 1 and 2 I am very happy with the progress I have made today. Tomorrow the goal is once again to trade again in an effort to stop the bleeding. Profit/Loss for the day -.5 pts I have several new rules to add to my trading plan. - Avoid the open, it is deadly and unpredictable for my method. I am going to avoid the first 45 minutes of trading until I can figure out a way to profitably trade it. I rarely get good readable signals from here. - If the market is chop you must get out, no hoping for a turnaround because in the chop there is no turnaround. THis would have saved me on the first trade, but because I learned this early today I was able to use it this afternoon when I felt my surroundings changing. - Do not let preconcieved biases about the market stop you from taking a strong signal, If the market wants to go up it is going to go up no matter how overbought/oversold it is. Trade what the market tells you not what you tell yourself. Tomorrow I hope to improve on my trading using my new rules.
kserra, what's with the bearish bias? You're a daytrader so it doesn't matter. It looks like you think you're gonna catch a homerun drop, but if the market ever drops you'll probably bail out after 1pt anyway. Only swing/position traders should care about how overextended the Daily chart is getting. You are mixing up good and bad principles so expect to have disappointing trades everyday since you are a newbie. I rarely have any disappointing trades. I'm not saying I always win, I'm saying I execute my plan properly so win or lose I am pleased with it. No point using an MA if you're trading by how price "looks" or how you feel. That's winging it. You can either see this as constructive critique or bashing. It's your choice how you view what I'm saying, just like it's your choice if you want to trade the way you are thinking good results are around the corner. Ask yourself if this is how pros trade. Find out if you have any edge or if a coin toss would give you the same results. It's only when you get real with your trading that any good can emerge. (Now watch criticisizing posts follow mine saying I am being too hard on you. That's how this website tends to go, so predictable.)