Why that? Hmm..., we will have a tight range in front of the BOE and EZB rate descisions and following statements. And after the news the direction is wide open to all sides.. (even if as I assume nothing spectacular will be said or made)
Purely technical (and intermarket---EUR is sliding today) play. I don't trade the news anyway.. I just expect volatility when they come out, not direction. I am getting bearish signals in the Bund for 3 days now, but I don't seem to find a nice entry (getting caught in all the sucker's games) and we're still chopping...
IMO if you play short time frame (1 h bars is short time frame) it makes only sense to fade the narrow range in front of potentially big news, which would mean buying below 115,5 and selling above 115,6 going for some ticks. My guess is that the range before noon will be not more then 20 ticks. Anyway, I am not a fader.
So, how do you trade it then? One of the assumptions I make in my trading is that: Trends break out at *random* times. This seems to work OK with stocks, but not with fixed-income (which seem to be more a news-driven market). The result... I am getting chopped for 3 days in front of the announcement. I should reconsidered my assumptions when trading the Bund...
I take small pieces of trends. I scalp on average 5 times a day. I watch momentum and volume, various time frames and pivot points (not just last days high and low) Most trades last less then 30 minutes. I do p&f, MP and bar charts.