That's one of those bullshit cliches that is totally meaningless. Early is not always the same thing as wrong, it just depends on your timeframe and the nature of your position. Everything is not the same as everything else.
You obviously don't know wtf you are talking about. Just another dumb ass talking head spouting off predictions with no time as to when this supposedly profound prediction is to occur. USDJPY Chart: <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2883260">
Hey genius, I don't need to pinpoint a timeline, since I'm not investing in Japan. I'm simply telling you on a macro level what will happen, regardless of whether you believe it or not. NO ONE can pinpoint exact timelines, that is one of the parts that is always subject to change. But the outcome is never in doubt. Which is why for instance, I've been long gold and silver since 2001. I didn't think it would take this long to break $1200/oz, but it didn't matter, because the timeline wasn't important, the fundamentals and macro environment was. So stick that in your "spout".
Interesting slideshow he has linked on his blog to his recent conference, Inequity and crises Krugman has been more right this past decade than any conservative economist I've run across. Are we still in a mental recession? Two ways out of today's malaise: 1) soak the rich and cut spending. 2) another stimulus package (more infrastructure jobs, tax benefits for small biz, alt fuel spending) and float paper at 4%. The idiot way is the republican way: cut spending, more corporate socialism and more tax cuts for the rich.
See my response here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2868620&highlight=Japan#post2868620 Moreover, the debt as 200% of GDP is a very misleading figure, as it's 200% gross. If you take into account the various holdings of bonds by branches of the Japanese govt, the figure is smth like 120% (if memory serves). It's just one of the quirks of the Japanese govt accounts. Here we go with the manipulation story again... I don't subscribe to it, so we're gonna have to disagree here. Nobody is projecting anything. In fact, it's the people who look at Japan superficially and scream that it's destined for a disaster that are guilty of excessively simplistic thinking. Japan has issues, no doubt, but one should always do one's own legwork and avoid listening to the panic-mongers.
Oh please. Only in some Keynesiot, back-asswards world. Krugman was absolutely 100% dead wrong about housing, the Fed, etc. leading up to the crisis. "To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman, Dubyaâs Double Dip, August 2nd, 2002 Compare to: "Congress should act to remove taxpayer support from the housing GSEs before the bubble bursts and taxpayers are once again forced to bail out investors who were misled by foolish government interference in the market. I therefore hope this committee will soon stand up for American taxpayers and investors by acting on my Free Housing Market Enhancement Act." - Ron Paul in the House Financial Services Committee, September 10, 2003 /thread
Because the stimulus isn't working (deflationary). But their debt is growing rapidly. That is a gigantic problem. Imagine carrying a big mortgage and getting your salary cut by 2%, every year.
I sense a bit of a contradiction here. You know what will happen and that's why you've made out like a bandit on your gold and silver. Well done! Seems like timelines don't matter to a savvy investor like yourself. So why not go short JGBs today? Or go short JPY (on a trade-weighted basis or whatever)?