The drop since the start of the year is quite dramatic... But you mention that eggs are in a ton of foods...Sugar, however, is in EVERYTHING. Shouldn't we want that to be coming down even more than eggs?
I think if I had an extra $500M or so laying around, I'd buy Shoe Carnival and take it private. It is now trading at a PE of 5.5, and I really like their stores. Clean, well run, 10X better than FL. $500M compounded at 4% (using current granny bank rates) makes me ~$132M over the next 6 years. Shoe Carnival, assuming they can maintain this horrible quarter's 2023 updated guidance of $3.25/share, makes me $532M over the next 6 years. After that, I own the company free and clear. VZ sits back on his yacht and collects $90M yearly (assuming, all things equal, zero growth, and most importantly, not lifting a damn finger). Can their $3.25/share be sustained going forward? I think so. There's still a place for a bricks and mortar shoe store. Their e-commerce did well too. Yeah there's competition, but in the markets they compete... it's a classier place. SCVL---> $21.87. Don't expect great things, but it was a steal at $19 earlier.
It looks like the Glazer family is taking Manchester United off the market for now. The bid was $21 a minute ago. It's $21.30 now. It'll be a good trading stock today for anyone interested. MANU
Personally, I don't trust this stock. It's too easy to manipulate and there's billions in the balance regarding the sale of this club. On the surface it looks like an easy short play today, but I don't trust the Brits and sure don't trust the Saudi Prince. They've been playing games via news releases ever since this story unfolded. This morning's press release... pfff... the Prince may make a news release tomorrow that he is raising his bid, and this thing will be $26. $19.95 now. Be careful if you try to short it. The float is only 45M shares. Pretty heavy institutional ownership too.
With debt and everything, at $19/share, the current enterprise value is $3.8B. The Lakers sold for $5B according to my quick google search. Now the Lakers are a powerful franchise, but I have to think Manchester United is worth more than $4B. Especially at an inflation adjusted value. Hmmm. Lets see where it bottoms out at over the next day or so. Bid ask spreads on the Jan 2025 calls is pretty high. If it keeps dropping, the $20'might go down to $4. A $7B sale would be about ~$38/share. Hmmmm. You'd think the way the world is so flush with liquidity, $7B for MANU would be cheap. For someone, or some group.
Options or not, I think it's a safe buy down here at $19 and change. I'm not really a soccer fan, but isn't Manchester United one of the names that no matter their record, it is what it is. Like the Celtics or something.
Naaa, not so much that, maybe a little, but I'm just looking at this Glazer family. They know what the club is worth, and they won't sell until they get their price. I'd say that has to be at or above $7B. The thing is, you can't really look at this like any other stock. If the stock dropped to $5/share, these people wouldn't bat an eye. They'd say... "Oh well, Wall Street has us at $1B.... but guess what.... if you want to own Manchester United, the price is $7B (or more). Take or leave it. We don't care about the stock price." It's not like we're doing a fundamental analysis of a company making a product. This is a very unique thing. A family owned major league franchise. Right now the stock is $19.70... but say you tried to buy all 168M shares. Guess what. You'd be lucky to get 100K shares at that price when the word got out. You look at the day to day volume on this thing, and that's just traders. What you want to see is a buyer that is accumulating. And yes, the chart is good for that. The more I type, the more I like this thing. The Atlanta Braves have an EV of $3.9B. Now if you were an international jet-setting playboy, or a group thereof, who would be cooler to own? I'm going with soccer, considering the fan base is like 100X bigger.