Kools Tools for price

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by KOOLBLUE, Dec 14, 2008.



    Kool's Tools for price
    Price Projections

    Alright, enough about the cycles (time) which seemed so simple but I guess not.

    This thread will address price projection a powerful tool but probably not as accurate as my cycles.

    First the theory, but its 'pseudo science' so skip it if you choose.
    My theory is that there is no 'randomness' in the markets but they have a definite mathematical structure. They are a product of investors' perceptions of events, value etc. I told you I used to study Elliot back in the day but could never consistently interpret the wave structure correctly. But it fascinated me that waves both up and down were often related by Fibonacci ratios. Wave 3's were often related to wave one's (the initial thrust up) by ,say 2.618 or something. Again going back to the waves within waves concept (wave1 if viewed closer has its own wave 1 through 5 and so on to infinity!) It struck me that virtually every tick is an up or down thrust culminating in a eventual top or bottom. Pretty weird , I know. That's kind of how price projection was born. I figured virtually every move both, up or down has an initial move which should be related to its own little wave3, or maybe even wave5 by a fib. ratio.

    Enough with the 'eclectic' guess at why this works. I use the golden ratio of 1.618 to forecast a price projection target. Warning: like my cycles, all this is telling you is where a 'bounce' may be, not whether it's for a point or twenty points. That's why I use it as a tool in conjunction with moving averages, my simple indicators and my simple (or so I thought) little cycle technique. Often times several different charts will give me the same number. (And not from the same points on the chart!) Such was the case recently with the 825.00 low on the ES. On a shorter term basis, same thing with the 984 top. Predicting a turning point is frankly, not that difficult, but knowing if that turn will be 5 ticks or 500 is. That's why I'm a scalper . All I really care about is the next few minutes. Any way remember I commented on the cycles thread that I knew by around 10:15 that the market 'wanted' 984? Here's how that came about. Remember, the theory is that every initial move times 1.618 and added to the end of that initial thrust gives the point at which it will run out of gas so to speak. What happens after I'll get into in the following chart.

    Next Page:confused:
  2. "Your theory", sounds familiar* -- ok, get on with it.

    *Elliott, Gann, Marechal, Hurst, Lindsay, Pesavento,Jenkins, Erman,Crane....


    <IMG src=http://i455.photobucket.com/albums/qq273/koolblue1/chart2.png> :cool:


    and here is an example from last week posted the day before the 828 low [​IMG]







    7308 Posts

    Posted - 12/22/2008 : 16:07:54 Show Profile Email Poster Edit Reply Reply with Quote Delete Reply
    the 'deadly 15 min proj is 878.25,possible on globex tonite


  9. It may be worth investing a little time to discover how frequently this doesn't work too; I fear you may be disappointed by the results.


    Have at it friend . ive traded this method for approx 10 years, and since AUG 8th i have traded and posted call after call in advance at mypivots .com , traders lounge, es thread. SO you have close to 1000 trades to analyise if you wish. ive had 5 losing days in 5 months. Ita all there if you want to do the research in the archives. Just be man enough to apologise afterward
    #10     Dec 24, 2008