Konviction's 12.2% goal for 2010

Discussion in 'Journals' started by konviction, Jan 10, 2010.

  1. I'm starting with little over 9,000. My goal is to end the year with a 12.2% return, which is an average of 101.72 a month, or 1,119.09. I left out Janurary in the calculation.

    My trades will be based off Forks, and Fibonacci retracements, and a mix of both from time to time. I'll use a few simple indicators to assist me, however some trades will ignore the indicators, as I've learned over the years that price action is king, and one needs to learn to be flexible in his, or her thinking.

    I will use the 80 and 200sma, and momentum. 200sma for long term trend, 80 for shorter term trades...mostly for counter trades when price is above 80, but still below 200, but may pose a nice set-up. Momentum is simple.... longs above 0 line, shorts below 0.

    For many trades I will require momentum to either cross above or below 0 before any trade is taken, however, the rule here can be bent depending on the price action. Big price bars may need to be acted upon faster, and therefore ignoring the momentum indicator.

    If price is coming to a support or resistance point from either a fork or fib that conflicts with the 200sma, 200sma will be ignored in most cases. Again price is king here, and I believe in taking trades with long term trend regardless of what 200sma thinks.

    I will scale out 1/2 my profits at the median line of the fork I am trading , or the top or bottom of the fib I am trading. Stop will be brought to break-even, and the rest will be taken at the fib extension levels or upper/lower fork lines.

    There will be no averaging-down, however I might scale into a trade, or add a call or put option, but this will probably be rare, as the size of my trades might be under 100 shares, and paying 10.00 r/t cuts into the pnl.

    I'll be risking no more than 3% (275).

    Well I think that about covers everything, wish me luck guys!

    - Kon
  2. Wow, actual goals seemingly within reach. Good luck and good trading. When the naysayers jump on board telling you to shoot for the moon or put your money in an index fund or... just ignore them and move ahead preserving and building your capital. Happy 2010!
  3. rickf


    Good luck -- nice, controlled method that sounds like is within your comfort zone as a trader. Hope it works out for you!
  4. I'd like to aim for the 400 + % that Neke does, but there's no way that I could sleep with that kind of PnL swing. Plus I'd be holding my trades for 2+ months for them to reach their targets..so my trading frequency would be a lot less.

    I'm thinking once i get some good trades behind me, and build up my confidence, I'll add options to some or all of my trades to boost % gains.

    for example I'm bullish on LMT. I'd have about 66 shares (dont laugh!), t1 would be the top of the trend at 85, then 91.91.

    The option trade would be a june 75 call @ 4.90 (fridays close). Sorry i'm kinda new at options but if price goes to 91.91, what is that 4.90 call worth?... 21.2?...i dunno, but i'd make 16.3pts on the stock.
  5. Got my first order in for the new year. Got a buy stop on wmt, if we can break highs of last fridays bar.

    Everything checks out to be positive. price is above 200 and 80 sma on weekly as well as daily, and momentum is +0 on both.

    Got other trades that look good too, but need more confirmation.

    entry 53.54 hopefully
    stop is 50.90 - 2.64pts
    t1 55 + 1.46
    t2 57.89 + 4.35
  6. got trades in for this morning-->

    long wfmi @ 29.89
    t1 --> 34
    t2 --> 43.05

    short txi @ 34.74

    t1 ignored
    t2 26.41
  7. TXI
  8. Picked up some nflx at 54.02. High intraday, but looks good on the daily. stops at 51.27 and my stops at the fib 1.382 extension of 55.79.

    TXI isn't lookin too good for me now, but I hope this is just a retracement before going lower.
  9. Sold 1/2 my wmt position today for $63.63 . stop moved to brakeven.

    Also got REGN short and WFMI long limit orders .
  10. Stopped out on NFLX today. I never should have taken the trade to begin with, at least not in the manner that I did. I bought the top yesterday near the close, and sold at the lows. If I was going to take entry off the 20min, I should have waited for a retracement first....after all that is the basis of this journal

    The reason I bought at the time was because it looked good on the daily so I didnt care too much that I bought the top on an intraday basis as price was still "cheap" on a daily. Price also had support at 61.8% level on the 6th of this month, so when I took the trade on the day we had a gap up, I figure it was safe.

    L @ 54.02
    Stopped @ 51.26 ( - 2.76)

    pnl - 272.20
    #10     Jan 14, 2010