KISS (Keep it simple stupid) ... but make sure you still have an edge

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by alex.samant, Jun 4, 2007.

  1. expiated


    It started when I was once again struck by how noticeable pullbacks in the day-to-day trend are on 60-minute charts, but I initially dropped down to 5-minute charts to code the indicators for entries and exits (the code is time-reference specific) which I feel calls for a certain amount of precision that is not available on one-hour charts.

    I then wrote the code for one-minute charts for when I want to get super, super precise with my entries and exits, and last night I wrote the code for 15-minute charts so I can see the bigger picture more easily.

    A few minutes ago I used my 15-minute chart setup to enter a CADJPY long position because the pair appears to be initiating a brand new reversal to the north, which would give me plenty of room up above in which to reap a profit, thereby providing me with the luxury of a lot more flexibility with respect to my entry level.

    The only problem is, if I am wrong, my loss will be much greater than what I am normally willing to suffer—but I’m hoping the fact that I believe I’m getting in on the ground floor of a brand new push to the north, even if temporary, means I won’t get stopped out.

    But now the rate just fell below 81.79, so who knows?

    It’s now at 81.83. This is where my one-minute chart says I SHOULD have entered a long position. Had I entered using a one-minute chart instead of a 15-minute chart, I could probably have picked up 10 or more pips profit a WHOLE lot faster without anywhere NEAR as much potential drawdown.

    I’m now long EURUSD as well, but this time I did it the RIGHT way...


    See? Ten pips profit in twenty-five minutes!

    ScreenHunter_7283 Mar. 04 16.11.jpg

    But I'm probably going to have wait for hours now before CADJPY finally pays off.
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2018
    #21     Mar 4, 2018
  2. taco


    Cool, my intraday system uses the 60 m for trend and 15 m for buy sell signals. So far its all discretionary. I have to start looking at moving averages in order to automate the strategy
    #22     Mar 6, 2018
  3. TheSaint


    How was your system during EUR fall today? I am realy interested how it works on such moves
    #23     Mar 8, 2018
  4. expiated


    #24     Mar 8, 2018
  5. TheSaint


    Thank you! Contact me on private, I am interested in your system.
    #25     Mar 9, 2018
  6. expiated


    #26     Mar 9, 2018
  7. TheSaint


    Nice. I appreciate your view. In this case good luck with your system, I hope it will help you make money. Cheers!
    #27     Mar 9, 2018
  8. expiated


    FOR FORUM.png

    I have been using one form or another of my Multiple Simple Moving Average Envelope Forex Trading Strategy since November of 2015, but continued to work at perfecting it because it is used most effectively (90%+ success rate) by limiting trades to those instances in which the exchange rate has deviated so far from the norm that “regression toward the mean” is virtually inevitable.

    However, this typically meant executing from a minimum of zero to a maximum of only three trades per day, usually near the close of the New York session, when rates initiated their first signs of reversing back toward more typical deviation levels (not a lot of trading).

    In the last week however, I’ve been working on developing a version of the system that would allow me to trade successfully with a ridiculous amount of frequency, yet without doing serious damage to my success rate. The above chart represents the result of that effort.

    This essentially means that I have no more goals in the area of mastering the Forex market other than getting better at using the above system, so while I was waiting for someone to complete some work they were doing for me at a nearby business establishment, I walked two blocks over to the local neighborhood library to check out a random book on Forex, just for the heck of it.

    But the library only had books on trading stocks, except that there was a book on cryptocurrency, and given that reading an Internet article here and there on the topic has not done a whole lot to clear up what I find to be a rather nebulous and mysterious subject, what with its “mining,” and “blockchains,” and whatnot, I went ahead and checked out the book, and will now be using a blog I have to record what I’m learning in place of dealing with the topic of Forex trading anymore.

    As for the “Keep It Simple Stupid” rules governing what is more than likely the culmination of my 2+ years tweaking my Forex trading system, here they are.

    1. If you wish to maximize the odds of your trades ending in success, limit the positions you enter to those that are aligned with a strongly trending general, overall, day-to-day trend line (the dashed, gray, triple banded moving average), but since this system is designed for intraday trading, this “rule” is optional.
    2. Enter long positions only when the exchange rate is above the black dotted moving average (the sentiment indicator). But only if the rate is also above the purple moving average (the confirmation line). Also, the time to do so is when the candlesticks are bouncing off of the bottom (support) band of the red dynamic support/resistance indicator (the red Darvas-Box-looking graphic).
    3. Likewise, enter short positions only when the exchange rate is below the black dotted moving average (the bias indicator). But only if the rate is also below the purple moving average (the confirmation line). Also, the time to do so is when the candlesticks are bouncing off of the top (resistance) band of the red dynamic support/resistance indicator (the red Darvas-Box-looking graphic).
    4. Set your stops at 10 pips.
    5. Set your take-profit target at twice the distance to the most recent (current) dynamic support/resistance level as indicated by the indigo Darvas-Box-looking indicator, as appropriate.
    And so, this concludes my contributions of the Keep It Simple Stupid thread!
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
    #28     Mar 9, 2018
  9. TheSaint


    Can / would you like to be more specific? I mean:

    1. What timeframe should one use?
    2. What parameters for the black dotted MA?
    3. What parameters for the purple MA?
    4. How did you draw the red dynamic support/resistance indicator?
    5. How did you draw the indigo Darvas-box-looking indicator?
    6. What other indicators did you use below the prise chart and how are those helping you? (Also with what parameters, and what signals do they give?)
    #29     Mar 10, 2018
  10. expiated


    You have asked the exact kinds of questions to which I was looking for answers when I first got into Forex trading, and the answers are very simple.

    However, it took me from November 5, 2011 to November 15, 2015 to establish the principles on which these very simple answers are based—and from November 15, 2015 to March 9, 2018 (yesterday) to fine tune the system to the point that it has become (perhaps) a virtual ATM machine, if in fact, that is what has just happened.

    If I have indeed done what I believe I have done (i.e., figured out which moving averages are the absolute best to use out of the infinite range of possibilities, and developed a methodology that is able to discover or uncover the key levels where the major multi international banks’ institutional proprietary desk traders are sending foreign currency exchange rates careening in the opposite direction), perhaps I should regard the conclusions I have drawn as "intellectual property" worthy of protection.


    So rather than share the information it took me thousands upon thousands of hours to arrive at for free, or sell it in book form for a few dollars when it has the ability to empower people to make hundreds of thousands of dollars, IF starting next week I begin to prove that the above chart configuration actually works, I would be more inclined to set up an office where appreciative people who are receptive to direction can watch what I do on a big screen, in real time, while they trade their own accounts using their personal laptops or on equipment rented from me there. That way, they could profit from what I’ve learned without my giving away “trade secrets.”

    I would encourage you to watch my progress via the 1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days thread, and IF I am successful and you’re STILL interested, let me know and I will contact Baron Roberts to find out what options elitetrader offers in the way of advertising and how much they would charge me to promote the same kind of service delivered using a virtual (online) "office."

    I would offer to sell you my proprietary indicators using elitetrader’s Classifieds threads under General Topics, but I’ve seen people on UpWork looking for coders to reverse engineer (?) or decompile (?) indicators that I would suppose were write protected (?)

    So that too is not an option I am looking to pursue.
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2018
    #30     Mar 10, 2018