Does the number matter? Does it matter if it's a general consensus? You'll fall back on your "shadow" data. That's what cranks do.
You put shadow in quotes like that as if it's some mystic way of reporting a number where people get around a campfire and summon the spirits of Mises. This just further illustrates what a complete idiot you are. Shadowstats uses CPI as the government fashioned it, before the government revised it continually in the hopes of driving out COLA from social security and then trying to mask real inflation via hedonics. It just uses the old methodology. When you don't like the information presented, attack the source of the info but show no real intent in trying to prove the flaws in the data. That's the Ricter 101. That's what Dodges do.
A good portion of the "people on the earth" believe inflation will be considerably above the Fed's advertised mandate of 2% on a 1 year timeline. Even more believe it 5 years out.
More recent chart with medium line selected. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MICH?rid=91&soid=14 It should be noted that this survey calculates these expectations in the CPI the BLS uses (same method, and with hedonics).
US inflation expectations at fresh low By Michael Mackenzie and Vivianne Rodrigues in New York April 16, 2013 5:53 pm "US inflation expectations have fallen to their lowest level since November, with an important investor benchmark back in negative territory for the year and money fleeing exchange traded funds that follow the asset class. "The shakeout in the inflation market comes as commodity prices, led by gold, have slumped, and consumer prices for March published on Tuesday were lower than forecast. "While inflation expectations picked up late last year as the Federal Reserve launched open-ended purchases of bonds, and the Japanese election result foreshadowed far more aggressive easing from the Bank of Japan, investors are now worried about falling inflation in the near-term. "Market expectations for US inflation over the next 10 years have eased to 2.40 per cent, down from a peak of 2.60 per cent in March, based on the difference or the so-called âbreak-even rateâ between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury debt. "Inflation expectations for the next five years have fallen 30 basis points in the past month to about 2.10 per cent. âThe overall decline in commodity prices has increased the marketsâ perception of potential disinflation emerging,â said James Evans, senior vice-president at Brown Brothers Harriman. He said short-term bond funds holding Treasury inflation protected bonds, known as Tips, which have been popular among investors, are set to substantially underperform other assets. "An index of Tips, including bonds up to a maturity of five years, was back in negative territory for the year on Monday in terms of its total return, according to Barclays. An index of the broad Tips market remains 0.4 per cent higher on the year, but lags behind the return on nominal Treasury bonds. "Outflows from the iShares Barclays Tips ETF have reached $1.7bn to date this year, nearly double the $890m that was pulled during all of 2012 according to IndexUniverse. Overall, investors have withdrawn $2.8bn from mutual funds that buy the securities through March, the longest period of outflows since the end of 2008, according to Morningstar. "The adverse fund flows and performance may persist given the allure of Tips as an inflation hedge for many investors since the Fed upped its quantitative easing efforts late last year. âInflation break-evens have already moved significantly lower but with many investors long Tips for seasonal reasons and yet to liquidate, we do think that break-evens have further downside,â said Richard Gilhooly, a strategist at TD Securities. "A test of investor sentiment looms on Thursday with the Treasury selling a record $18bn of five-year Tips. âThat will focus the mind as to whether to add to inflation at lower levels or demand a deeper concession,â said Mr Gilhooly. He added that 10-year break-evens are likely to trade well below 2.40 per cent, âbefore we find them attractive, especially as this move is occurring amid stepped-up global quantitative easingâ. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2c0b7666-a6a7-11e2-885b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ScXwupmq
Wow, you really are great at cutting a pasting articles, but you fall into the same trap each time. The entire article is basing it's "inflation expectations" on the treasury market, and low yields. It has, of course, been pointed out many times that the treasury market is at record low yields because the Fed is buying 60-80% of all the debt being issued (depending on duration). Since the Fed is spending trillions of dollars to keep rates low, you (and other main stream clown reporters) think that's indicative of low rates.
Your consistent mistake is thinking you're smarter than everyone else, and that no one but you is taking those factors into account already.