I did read a post that you had made about this before. Quite honestly, I am weak on this subject and would like to learn more. Can you elaborate on this any or maybe point me somewhere to do some reading?
how does one know this unless one subscribes to thompson or maybe bloomberg ? - If it is clear that a central bank has jumped in-
I don't really care if it is a CB, Hedge or anyone defending option positions, only that major orders are showing up. I just took a snapshot of the Swissy on the CME. Do you notice anything that might be a clue in the order matrix. Do you think these were buy or sell orders? Incidentally, this is inverse so if you do think these are buy orders then that means the dollar will weaken and a EUR/USD gain is likely. Likewise, if this is a sell order, someone really thinks we are headed south.
I tend to side with Coinz in the near term, we need some Eur strength. It is hard to imagine how much more we can slide in the near term.
I'm not sure I understand the logic in this - it seems to ignore the mechanics of the market. For every one of those trades, there was a buyer AND a seller, as there is every single time a futures contract is traded/printed on matrix or tape. Yes, there was a lot of trades at those 2 price levels, but it is folly to try to differentiate them as "Buy" or "Sell" orders - because they are exactly BOTH. For every buyer there was a seller and vice versa. It simply displays the volume of trades at that level, without prejudice to buying or selling - since by definition, it was both in order for a trade to take place. If the sell side orders were one big fund or bank, there was enough buyers (big or small) to negate them and provide support so far. Vice versa for a big buy order that was absorbed by seller(s). The only thing that will determine which way prices will go is how aggressive the buyers are in raising the bids or how aggressive the sellers are in dropping the ask as prices continue to change in the future, in relation to those aforementioned price levels. But looking at a static representation of the volume doesn't tell whether buyers or sellers were more aggressive at that level. It seems the thing to do is watch the price/volume action as the level gets supported or penetrated - but even as that happens either way, there will still be an equal number of buyers and sellers (in aggregate of their trades) for every contract traded. Just my .02 and also I welcome any proof or solid argument that I am wrong in this assessment. Respectfully, Paul
Pair EURUSD Time Fram Tue 09/27/05 04:00 AM Tue 10/04/05 10:11 AM 174 Hours Trend South Enter 1.2138 1.2169 1.2200 1.2232 PT 1.1861 1.1840 1.1819 1.1799 S/L 1.2263 1.2418 1.2574 1.2730 Trail (Deci) (0.0014) (0.0014) (0.0014) (0.0014)
I agree with vision's assessment, overall. However, you won't find me adding short positions on the EUR at this level unless we see a major and conclusive break of the bottom @ 1.1867. Yes, rates are going up (supposedly) - but my spidey sense tells me this is going to be coming to a close very shortly as rates reach "neutral" levels in the neighborhood of 4.00/4.25 percent. Yes, dollars are going to be repatriated - but this is still a limited number, and unfortunately in FOREX, a number that large is still a stone's drop in a pond. What I still do not like (and I am traditionally a dollar bull) is the following: 1. Massive unbalances in trade and budget (the ol' twin defs) 2. Greenie leaving in January 3. Oil and the US's dependency 4. Fallout from the last several storms 5. Various geopolitical landscapes with Iran I tell you, as sure as the sun will rise, that once people think rates are done rising, the dollar will be done rising. If I am wrong on that, I am wrong. But that is the evidence before me. Cheers, Ivan