If we break 1600 with any momentum then you can forget any runs back to retest May's high for at least 3 months.
Good call. I thought for sure we'd see new highs. Notice the bounce down at ~1648 was that daily confirmed trendline and channel line. ES respects daily/weekly trendlines and channel lines really well. How did u know the market wudnt make new highs?
It's difficult at present as the market is rebalancing. Had it been status quo we would have ticked to new highs but the markets are no longer free to find their natural balance. As mentioned FED, FED, FED. Lots and lots of juice swirling around looking for returns. We have a powderkeg ready to blow in any direction and the FED is trying to wrestle this thing. Kinda like a little old lady with a 300 lb St. Bernard chasing a bitch in heat.... Nice visual, eh?
LOL my buddy is a fundamental guy, and had a convincing list of reasons why the s&p won't make new highs this summer and trade sub 1600..
if you bought at 1650 it would not feel like that but at that level its close to start of the year price. i don't think anybody can tell you what will happen. if the s&p starts trading at 1550 and your long do you buy the dip or sell your position? its easy to say buy the dip today because to some that would be a dream price but it becomes a nightmare price if your in a position at today's prices. the computer system trading really makes it hard to get a feel of the markets during the day but its got more interesting lately. the world markets move a lot more with human emotion and the US market seems like a slow drawn out video game.
That's what I was thinking and wondering what was the point of all this discussion. The only way we'll know for sure what's happening is in hindsight.
Not necessarily. Establishing a "position" and then trading around the position is often most profitable as the noise gets attenuated. BTW futures already tested 1600 tonight. The rest of the week will be interesting. Depends on POMO for the MOMO and last dip was met with propping by the proper proppers. This time maybe not as the balloon deflation is supposed to be a gated orderly sell-off.....
I had a talk with an investor tonight. Not a small money guy. I said this - at the end, it comes down to the FED. Maybe we go sideways for a few months. Maybe we go down a hundred points. At the end of the day, the FED will monetize with another round, and that's that. Technical analysis confirmed the downtrend. I don't expect it to have legs. Peace