soon there will be another 'key reversal' thread, or more top calling. hope everyone has been long and strong!!
That Key Reversal 5 weeks ago to take advantage of persisted for 5 weeks ! ...... Something to have taken advantage of, putting on positions during that aberration. Last week it made a Key Reversal of the 5-week ago Key Reversal completely retracing 5 weeks in only 1 week ! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3851436#post3851436
A month later and.... Grpn still kicking ass. Grek bottomed the day of the note. SP500 made new high (oops) but selling the new highs may payoff come end of earnings season. PE expansion can continue but this is wholly FED related and taper talk isn't going away. FED is trapped as the Chair rotates. Look for 10-20% correction before year-end and then off to the races (again).
CSCO news may break support to the downside. This market is levitating on fumes right now....... Must....transfer....more......wealth....before....we.....take.....the.....ship.....down.......STOP Will.......see.....you....in....October.........STOP Take......no......prisoners......locals......are....unfriendly.....STOP
Market clinging to a hope at best. "Buy the Dip", really!!! Maybe not. Labor day, Bad time of Year for market, Oil, Syria, Housing Bubble, consumer confidence. Sheesh and we're still levitating. Correct already so we can move ahead with new money to push to a better, brighter stronger...... Ummm if you didn't get short as suggested a month ago well we're halfway through the "correction" so go to cash? Hedge? Short? But really who's buying here?
Lojanica 07-18-13 11:50 PM Quote from Trader.Fighter: When you say sell, you mean sell the longs, short, or both ? Market was @ 169.23
weekly low 162.5 Target low for this move 160.5 Then up for a while until the second half of the dwonward move to 1530-1550 this fall. (Could be lower. I think that's a minimum) My original target was 1450 but that was revised as the market has shown resilience. Cleanest dirty shirt? We COULD still hit that target this Fall but temporally this is less likely. The market is dynamic and targets must be continually reevaluated as things change.
I was asked why the change on the low. Simple. 200 day moving average. Many look to the breech of the 200d MA as the signal for the start of a bear. I do not see a bear market unfolding this year unless we have an exogenous event. The 200d was 1460 at the time of my call for a low of 1450. However the bull marched for a few months longer albeit within a range which would be characterized as sideways as anticipated. But with the 200d now at 1550 ish I raised my target but again wait and see and adapt as necessary. Until then it is highly unlikely we don't hit 1550 to 1570 before year-end and highly unlikely we don't retest highs and beyond rolling into 2014.
I was asked another question. Syria? Typically markets rally with the onset of war. Initially there is a panic sell-off and risk assets are shed with a flight to safety which we are seeing now. The Pentagon and White House said "Proof coming Thursday" of WMD's in Assad's Syria. Long holiday weekend so I imagine something happens over weekend or early next week. If that is the most likely course of events (no one has a crystal ball) then it would be likely we sell-off into Friday/weekend and rally next week until the Fall sell-off which is why I think this is the first part of a 2 part sell-off this year. Next year or 2015 is a different story as the unwind takes hold globally.