Time to reinstitute deep OTM Put and Call Spreads as insurance I guess. Been awhile since I've done that but we may wake up limit down each day for a week. Who knows
the Brazilian's went nuts over bus fair hikes last month but there is more to that of course. i think its a sad world when CEO's are making more and more money instead of using it to hire workers. you could have a better long term economy and society if CEO's made far less like 2 million or even 4 million because you can keep people working in the good and bad times. i think chris hedges is right to the point.
The market can be manipulated. Technically speaking, the market would have collapsed in 2011 if they hadn't intervened. The proof was the week candlestick(11-26-2011) that changed the down model and turned the market to the up side. If you compare the week chart in 2008 and 2011, you will have that conclusion. Here is what happened in 2008.
Why I can't attach more than one pic in one reply? Here is what happened in 2011 as what the pic below showed. I remember it was the week when the european summit was opened.
As convoluted as this thread has become interestingly the short term low may indeed materialize this week on July 5th or monday the 8th. Freaking cyclotron model is surprisingly good. Having said that the Market's current edge is trading the outer edge of short term probability. If that makes sense then you're good. Interesting things to ponder. If a microsecond has 1000 periods per second then minute is equivalent to 60,000 periods or if using an hourly chart 3 years 4 months. The perspective is important because it illustrates that edges exist in all timeframes hence "the race to zero." I find interesting the interface between these time frames or intertimeframe analysis. How does a one second chart affect a 15 second chart, a one minute chart, or a five minute chart. There is structure in all timeframes. Is Didier Sornette the new Mandelbrot?
Squash zone----50day ma and rising low. Back filling. Time price still has Ammo's target in sight 1630ish in sp500 which could coincide with a sell-off mid-month thereafter then down to 1570ish. Alot of zig zagging in between unless a macroevent occurs. The arab spring could be a trigger (as always) as increasing crude would definitely stall economic progress as the already fragile cinsumer 70% of our economy would hit the brakes. Anyways in the meantime mean reversion and all its glory.
I do not trust today's close. To easy to knock it one way or the other. Holiday, short covering, low volume affair. Out. See you Friday or Monday....... A couple updates GRPN is kicking ass. Add another possible long to the list. GREK. Allow some event risk but worth monitoring. Wait for the dust to clear first then consider.
Identifying an asymmetrical opportunity is an "edge" That's why Mandelbrot's work is so fascinating. Not a bell shaped curve thus asymmetric opportunities also carry the risk of blow-out. The next question is how to mitigate this risk. I am unsure as a retail snail how to hedge GREK without an activate accessible options market. Any ideas?
EU-IMF panel issued a statement saying Greece has made important progress but remains behind in some areas of policy implementation. European markets rallied on a sign suggesting the next tranche of Greek aid will be approved without issues while ignoring disappointing industrial production data out Germany (-1.0% actual, -0.5% expected).