Discussion in 'Trading' started by Lojanica, May 22, 2013.
Key reversal day.
Make note. Target on S& P as low for the summer dip is 1450
You do realize that every man, woman and child both sides of the Mississippi has called today a reversal. I'm just sayin...
but again-from my observations such sell offs are rare, where everything is in red. bonds,stocks and commodities.
but on other hand-what we really have? QQQ and spy,dia are down less than 1%
few years ago-it would be a just regular down day,nothing special
I haven't complied any stats on it. But just as an off hand observation these kind of outside reversals just don't seem to work like they did a couple decades ago.
Glancing at an Daily ES chart just now, the only other one I noticed recently was on Feb 25. It turned out to be a swing low.
Key reversal is a fairly worthless barchart pattern in and of itself.
However, I think this particular key reversal may very well be the top. Maybe.
Absolutely belaboring the obvious but there are many reasons.
The market spiked and reversed. Yes it was down an insgnificant amount but compared with the spike high it was a significant move. Vix had already diverged a week ago acting as prelude to the reversal. The FED is worried about the stock train running away hence the serious jawboing about turning the volume down on QE but trying to control the rush for the exits. Just saying a 10% correction between now and Sept. is highly likely and if so there is a good chance today was the top.
But what ever. I backed my claim with real money and it was nerve wracking selling into the price spike. I left as I knew upside was capped for the day in the context of the price action as of late. Then lo and behold bang. I do not foresee a crash but the heady climb has definitely cooled.....
Nor have I. Remember the peak in silver tho? Same formation - huge bearish engulfing candle. Either way, today hit some big technical levels...
currencies are confirming this though. Backed everything Bernanke had to say about reducing QE.
Nikkei going as much as 7% down sure added some spiciness to that KR.
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