the more likely it is to be successful. Today I scored 11 ES pts with only two trades, yesterday -6 ES pts (one trade), but two days ago 30 ES pts (3 trades) using very simple systems. Do not give a damn about what you hear here. Backtest your system and keep it using if it works. Some of the people on this board do not know how to draw Fibs using their charting software, what kind of feedback do you expect from them?
The simpler your system is the more likely it is to be successful I have heard this before. Simpler is better as if it is some kind of fundamental law. ...oh yeah..why? I would like you to prove it.
We love you too, Wally. And, isn't that kinda like saying "All the posts to this thread are lies, including this one."?
Yes, in a way it is fundamental. You have a background in engineering, right? Simpler things break down easier? Or complex things break down easier? Answer this question and perhaps you will understand why simpler things can work better. The less complex something is the more reliable it is, don't you think so? At least it works for me, and I don't care why others want to complicate their lives. If I told you how simple the simplest of my systems is, you would laugh at me. I guess it works because most people think that something as simple as that cannot work, and that's precisely the edge I have with this system. It's as simple as that. And that's also the reason I am not going to tell you that. Because this is my edge. I think about complexity in terms of entropy, but that's too complex for this board.
My point is this: only the really independent survive in this business. If you have guts to follow your system you are doing better than most of the ET readers. So why bother asking anyone here about what they think about your system. If it works keep using it. If you have doubts... well, that's the first step to become just like most here....
please don't tell us anymore, a few of us might use it and poof there goes your edge up in the smoke of a few more contracts.
Why make something complex, when you can make it simple. The more rules your system has, the more likely something will break down along the road. Actually it's just like programming a big gigantic software with billions of threads, debugging process is long, but in that case you don't necessarily have money on the line at each trade. Simple will save you money in the long run. That is my contention. Now some complex systems do very well, if you know exactly its in and outs. take it easy guys.
A few more contracts will not change things much, but if everyone knew the rules of the system, it would definitely stop being as profitable as it has been. That's why I cannot share it with everyone and I am glad to hear that you can understand that. Some people on this board cannot grasp even that. Yet, I would like to share it with a selected few so that they can see how simple trading can be. I just need to find a few open-minded who appreciate simplicity in their trading. I know that there are such people on this board and I am glad to see that they belong to the minority. If it were the way around simplicity would not be that effective. That's a simple contrarian argument why simplicty works.
That's precisely what I said, except that I made it even simpler. Now you are the public enemy number two on this board. You are dangerous because you dare to think simple.
Wally, If you seek to "prove" that simplicity works, or more specifically that your simple method(s) work, you could simply post an account statement or otherwise log your trades via journal format. I realize you probably feel you don't have to prove anything to anybody, but I make the suggestion because you average many posts per day on the "simplicity" threads. You can also make a bigger impact with your "opening 30m fib" results by posting trades (real or paper) as they occur. We all known the nature of fibs is that they are extremely easy to trade on the left edge of a chart.