Kept It Simple - Is This Something??

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by mrpace, Dec 10, 2002.

  1. Obviously you're going to get a billion different answers here.

    It's working now, there is no reason to think it will stop working. When (if) it stops working then you have some work to do. If it continues to work you still have some work to do to increase your equity curve (unless you are perfectly satisfied with 44-70k a year, which would be fine.)

    Ultimately your question as to the significance of your results can only be answered by your analysis of your system/situation. Which is why I didn't want to post a response to this initially.

    If this is your first time being net profitable then you're probably going to have (and what I assume prompted your post) high emotions "what if it stops working, what if what if what if..."

    Don't let yourself think that way....simply say "what I have done has made me money, if I continue to follow my rules, I will continue to make money. If I suddenly find myself in a losing streak/drawdown outside of normal parameters (which you must define) and I have not disobeyed my system, ...then I will look for the problem.

    In short, you are the answer you seek.
    #11     Dec 11, 2002
  2. mrpace


    Today I went 3 for 12 in the ES for a loss of $207.60, and 2.5 for 10 in the NQ for a loss of $138. I say half because I didn't get my full profit target in one of my trades in NQ...I had to take a 3 point profit instead of five since it was the end of the day....

    Which leads me to another question:

    Since I have a pre-set target of 2 points for ES and 5 points for NQ, what would you guys suggest I do if say my target price is printed, but I don't get a fill, and it starts to move away from me?? I have it in mind to adjust my stop to lock in half my profit target in this case, which would result in +1 for ES and +2.5 for NQ should the market move far enough away from my target.

    Is this an intelligent strategy for those situations where the market reaches my target, but I don't get an immediate fill, and the market starts to move away? I've seen this in action a few times....sometimes I would have been better off not adjusting the stop, other times I would have been better off adjusting the stop.

    Am I correct in assuming that if I traded more than one contract at a time, I would be in front of all those who are trading one contract and have limit orders sitting out on Globex?? This would most likely improve my chances of getting filled at my target, correct??

    #12     Dec 11, 2002
  3. gnome


    I believe that orders for the same price are booked according to the time received, not size. If you wan't to get filled first, you must put your order in EARLY.

    Whatever you do about stops or taking profits early, it's all arbitrary. :D
    #13     Dec 11, 2002
  4. One thing I find with this kind of method, ie. tightening your stop the way you mentioned, is that your stop is going to get hit a lot on a natural backfill on the ES. There is nothing more frustrating than panicking out of a trade on a backfill. Instead, you may want to experiment with having that stop at b/e and extending your target by 1 or 2 ticks after you don't get a fill at your target the first time. The reasoning behind this is, that if there is a pullback after getting to your original target, the chances are it will trade through it next time by 3 or 4 ticks. If you fail to get hit the second time, then you may want to tighten your stop. No exit strategy is perfect but, however you do it, you should keep it consistent.
    #14     Dec 11, 2002
  5. mrpace



    Thanks for your reply. Consistency IS key, I agree completely.

    Your suggestion of extending the target is intriguing. I hadn't thought of doing that before. Thanks.
    #15     Dec 11, 2002
  6. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    Please tell us what the simple system is that you are using for entries....I can see what you are using for exits.
    #16     Dec 11, 2002
  7. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    Didn't want this superb little piece of wisdom to go unnoticed. So true, so true. Thanks rs7. :cool:
    #17     Dec 11, 2002
  8. mrpace


    I don't really feel comfortable going into details....suffice to say it's nothing revolutionary, which is why I posted this note in the first place. I'm wondering how something that isn't revolutionary could achieve some very nice results, and in addition, be expected to continue achieving these results in the future. I'm in the "this has to be too good to be true" phase...

    The method is 99% mechanical. The only discretion comes in the exits when you don't get filled initially, like I detailed in today's posts....
    #18     Dec 11, 2002
  9. Hendrix


    If its nothing revolutionary, then chances are someone here has backtested it and has a view on how it may work going forward.

    Could save you a lot of heartache......

    #19     Dec 11, 2002
  10. TGregg


    I'm guessing you are using ticks rather than 1 minute (or longer) charts, so you really can't backtest `cuz your provider doesn't have the ticks. Fine, one does the best one can with the tools one has.

    However, unless you are way off the reservation with some new, extremely wild idea that you think will work (like you came up with a reason why the market moves directly in relation to the skill level of the average American Soldier, and inversely to the diameter of the average grapefruit from this year's harvest), I'd suggest you either papertrade this new system for a couple weeks, or at the very least, trade with the minimum amount that you can (like one contract).

    Just me humble opinion.
    #20     Dec 11, 2002