Ken Heebner's outperformance is not just derived from his concentrated positions, but from the fact that he very actively trades his portfolio. He does not "sit" on losers. One down year in the last 20, not too shabby.
All im pointing out is that he is very concentrated which he admits and that requires excellent timing skills which he apparently has. Nevertheless, you still risk a big blowup.
And given that COTS are bullish for most indices, this active gentleman would wish to get the biggest bang for the buck out of any relief rally. Same as always...trade what offers.
One other thing...stating we are at maximum housing distress (whatever that is supposed to imply) doesn't rule out NOT having reached maximum distress elsewhere. Nice for a soundbite though.
The one thing I know for sure is Ken Heebner has about a much of clue when housing is going to bottom as a cab driver.
what stats did Heebner quote? he talked about ISM & population in China/India; but what did he quote?
great run... bill miller had a great run, until he didnt. Victor Neederhoffer posted great numbers, until he crashed & burned. so maybe Heebner has another 19 for 20 stretch, or maybe he regresses toward the mean. im just another ET wannabee swinging my own line, but i disagree with Heebner.
Ken Heebner is a market wizard no doubt about that. He even beated Peter Lynch in terms of performance in the last decade, there was an article on Fortune about it, Now...the fact that he is bullish about certain aspects of the economy means absolutely nothing for the 90% of all other investors, no one knows what he is doing, fact is that many traders/investors instead of buring hours in front of the screen to only have a mediocre performance would have been much better off investing with him...in terms of time and money
So? I've had plenty of trades that were fades of the positions held by great traders, and turned out to be spectacular winners. On any given trade, even the best in the world are wrong 30-40% of the time.