In Ken Fisher's article in Forbes, for the first time in a long time, Ken is lost and confused. He had been hitting the buy button all year long and now he is saying there is a bear market. Bill Miller's value fund is now sucking wind like a growth fund from 2001. Warren is deep in the red on quite a few stocks like BAC, WFC and USG. Are the best of the best now lost and confused?
Lost and confused now maybe, but I don't think these people judge themselves on short-term time frames.
Lost and confused, I think not. The attempt at securing value ala picking a bottom may be completely wrong, but then what is the timeframe? Buffet buys to hold for years and decades. When (if) they sell, THAT would be the time to pay attention. I seem to recall Buffet "missed-out" on the last bubble. Anyone can be genius in a one-way market, whether they participate or not.
Excuse me, but hasn't the total returns of Bill Miller's fund outperformed the S&P for 15 years up until January 1st of 2006? Not bad for a fund manager that has watched his asset base grow to $20 Billion. We all should be so lucky.
My point of the post is not to dismiss their past records, but to point out that these gurus are now lost. (additionally, no one cares about what you did in the past, they care what you can do for them now) Ken Fisher states the following in his article: http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/0901/110.html There have been three other bear markets since I started this column 24 years ago: 1987, 1990 and 2000. This is the first time I haven't anticipated the fall. (See my columns of Oct. 5, 1987, May 14, 1990 and Mar. 6, 2000.) I hate that. I let you down. I also admit confusion. In my 36 years as a professional investor I have not seen a period like this. Investors are afraid, journalists are morose, and the same old stories keep replaying endlessly. That's not normal. In the world I've known most of my life, old stories quickly lose their power over capital markets and get replaced by new surprises. That which everyone fixates on gets priced into the stock market quickly and can't drag on. But here, 19 months after we first started hearing about subprime mortgages, housing woes and weak financials, the stories moving stocks are little changed.
Exactly. I don't think you'll see any of them posting on ET These guys are the best in their respective businesses. If you want to be involved in the markets in the capacity of a trader OR an investor you simply have to be willing to lose money.
First off, these guys are NOT TRADERS. They are not the Stevie Cohen's of the world. No way. No how. They are portfolio managers that make INVESTMENTS based on stock selection. Don't let Ken Fisher's article on his historical perspective of bear and bull markets, how the stock indices performed during those moves, and his highlight of MACRO issues fool you.