Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by ironchef, Jul 4, 2017.

  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    :thumbsup:. But it is not as simple as following a recipe or a formula. I had to work really hard to understand his concepts and philosophy.

    Frankly I don't know how good an investor/trader is he but it does not matter since I benefited greatly from his counsel.

    Regards,
     
    #121     Oct 6, 2017
    MACD likes this.
  2. MACD

    MACD

     
    #122     Oct 6, 2017
    ironchef likes this.
  3. MACD

    MACD

    Click the "More..." Above :sneaky:
     
    #123     Oct 6, 2017
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    Let me ask you and MrScalper the following questions:

    1. For swing trades, I was able to look at charts and recognized certain patterns. Combining that with my existing method gave me better entries and better profitable exits the majority of the time. In general is chart pattern (S & R for example) trading a legitimate TA practice or was it just a lucky break for me? A yes or no answer suffices, no need to get into details.

    2. For intraday or short term trading (day trading) I was told I need to be able to trade off bar to bar chart information. So far I did poorly. Any comments on this will be greatly appreciated.

    Thanks.
     
    #124     Oct 7, 2017
  5. MACD

    MACD

    No. (as to your point one)
    Why?
    It is hard to understand what values you are placing on the pattern or patterns that you believe is valuable, and then combining that with your "existing method". Understand collinearity and the effects thereof on your decision to enter a trade based on all you are considering (probably too much) and the decisions will be confused and of no value.
    KISS may be the answer. Simple is Better. Keep It Simple Stupid


    [​IMG]

    2. For intraday or short term trading (day trading) I was told I need to be able to trade off bar to bar chart
    information. So far I did poorly. Any comments on this will be greatly appreciated.

    This is no doubt something that you adopted from Al Brooks book or course on trading "bar by bar". Again, possibly combining way too much information into your decisions. KISS. Just like taking vitamins or medications -- when mixing several different vitamins or medications taken simultaneously you will do harm even to your trade decisions.

    Conclusion: Let us show you what we do to simply trade profitably. It really is not that difficult. So, I am sure that Mr. Scalper or myself will be happy to assist. (Yes, some will share for free.) But posting in ET usually causes too much pain from those who just enjoy bashing. Generally, we all believe what we want to and it is difficult if not impossible to pry loose those beliefs -- even if those are conterproductive.

    BTW -- It is difficult, at least for me to answer a genuine question without expanding on the need for a one-word answer. Sorry for my inability.
     
    #125     Oct 8, 2017
  6. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    Information is of no real value until it is used in the correct way..in order for this to happen one must first understand what it is one is trying to achieve..as..it might not be possible to achieve the desired outcome depending on the circumstances!

    It really is funny how many jump into throwing away their money without first spending some time gathering the relative information.. instead they gather useless information that has no basis on facts or..even common sense at times :)

    Anyway..never worry about anyone else.. always look out for "number one"..and..never ever take financial advice from anyone who can not clearly explain the associated risks involved with the particular investment or speculative bet..way too many assholes out there..just make sure you never let your pants down..or you might wake up with one sore hole :)
     
    #126     Oct 8, 2017
    MACD likes this.
  7. MACD

    MACD

    AGREE. Please understand that I am, like you, content. I am a giver, not a taker. Perhaps that is not being totally mindful of "number one". Thanks...
     
    #127     Oct 8, 2017
  8. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    To be honest..no way to tell without seeing your entries and exits..but as I know how you operate :)..I would say you are enjoying the bull run that seems to never be ending right now!!

    Unless you are prepared for the worst case scenarios..and know exactly what not and what you must do.. then.. you really are just pissing about..same as most do.

    It is a serious game..and requires serious attention..not will nilly trading and not understanding why you make and lose what you do.

    A professional trader or investor means exactly that..it is your profession..not a little part time job for making easy money.

    Academic bullshit doesn't help also..most academics are as thick as a plank when it comes to real life situations..they live in another world and can cost you a lot of money if you are the gullible type!

    Currently loading Win 7 Ultimate on to a laptop..then install Office 2013 Pro..then use a crack to stop that silly anoying activation crap..I don't think they need my few $ :)
     
    #128     Oct 8, 2017
    MACD likes this.
  9. MACD

    MACD

    Sometimes I wonder if it is worth the effort to be of any help? Maybe first, we need to really determine the motives and effort that wannabes will put forth. Needed: Willingness to listen, Respect for the effort, and acceptance that it takes some work to learn enough to be successful.o_O
     
    #129     Oct 8, 2017
  10. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    Yes.. everything is in context!

    Last week a wild cat that frequents our home was not well..I got a call..came home..got the cat in a cage.. brought to vet..vet kept overnight..rang me next morning said cat was bit better but not eating..said would keep for day..rang me bout 2 hrs after said cat had deteriorated badly and was getting fits..I said to put him down and I would call up later and pay him.

    Cost me over $100 for a wild cat..but I did not care as I like animals..and try to help them any way I can..to be honest..I would not do the same for some people I know..in fact..there are some..who..if were drowning in the river..I would throw them a brick..but I would never ever harm a poor animal!

    Point is..yes..I do believe in what goes round comes round..but..I also do believe in "an eye for an eye"..only way.. those who con people out of money or whatever.. deserve exactly what they get..only way..no exceptions!!
     
    #130     Oct 8, 2017
    ThunderThor likes this.