Can it be possible for one to find an indicator or trading edge that is ridiculously simple? Over the last year I have been expermenting with various strategies and have come to the conclusion that the higher the time frame, less frequent trading, and really simple indicators go a long way towards profitable results. The thing is, it is tough to believe in them and put such strategies into practice, BECAUSE they rely on such elemental rules - you would think trading couldn't be so simple! Sometimes, one needs to immerse himself in formulas, programming languages, exotic trading platforms, etc. etc. just to provide a [false] sense of security. The industry has tried convincing people that only complex algorithmic traders and quants can survive in this evolving field. But yet I am still skeptic regarding their models, and have found that simpler forms of trading exist and provide a more efficient way to approach the markets. Are there any long-term profitable traders that still rely on basic discretionary principles to determine their positions in the market?
"Simple" stuff works "well" in a strongly trending market if you're able to resist the urge to churn the position for every wiggle and squiggle in the market.
IMO its not worth fighting for the pennies. The big money is made on the main trends. I guess its just like life, you need to learn to go with the flow. The main problem which I find with a simple rule-based discretionary trading method is controlling one's own state of mind. Your mind starts becoming your enemy, and you begin doubting the very trend which had convinced you to open a position in the first place.
This couldn't be more true in my opinion. I've closed out several trades only to see the market continue in my original direction, then I would always find myself asking why I let the small changes take me off of my original plan. The mind can play so many tricks on you while in a trade or when debating entering a trade.