Great Call and $$$ on your part...I think it will continue upwards tomorrow..really rocked them and no one really expected anything like they delivered IMO Congratulations!
Outside of all of the hype you now see on CNBC I think there are some good signals that have come together to show some power behind this rally and maybe a rally that will have some follow through. The biggest things I have see are how the market blows off every bearish scenario. Oil use to negatively effect stocks but stopped when we hit new all time highs in oil recently, the way the markets blew off the London bombing, and the interest rate tightening has had little effect on stocks. I would think if we get some more surprise bearish earnings and we rally through it that we could see a good breakout develop. To me how the market has traded after all these events is very telling of future direction. Hey I can't wait for the good old CNBC Nascrack 3000 post wrap up show where we can see the hosts high fiving each other again.
The london bombings have no real economic impact but oil and higher interest rates do. It's just that the market has chosen to ignore this and the momentum is clearly up. It's no different from an analyst rating a stock a buy at 50 and cuts his rating to sell at 2. Keep riding the trend but don't wait for somebody to tell you when it's over because it will already be too late.
Keep in mind there are a lot of trouble signs otu there already. Shipping volumes are way way down and have been for a while. There are too many guys like Equitytdr running around believing stocks only go up and Jim Cramer is god. A yield curve that could very well become inverted. 66% of the time the fed goes into a rate tightening cycle it ends in recession. Earnings growth is slowing and I have heard plenty of people say it wasn't true it was just CEO's were afraid of sarbanes oxley so they lowballed the number. REal estate isn't going up forever. Who knows when it will end but it will probably end badly once again.
Are you dumb or just pretending? Where were you during 2003 when there were real & heavy buyers for equities instead of day traders, programs & hedge funds covering shorts. The volume is not there for it to be a real bullmarket. The retail & institutional cash is still on the sidelines.
I think one of the main stories lifting this market is corporations have easy access to cheap money in the corporate bond market and they're using it for stock buy backs and m&a activity, both of which remove supply from the market place. Corporate bond managers are more bullish on the prospects for the economy than their equity counterparts and they are buying any deal that companies bring, and at very attractive rates for the company. There have been 100's of billions of dollars worth of stock buy backs and aquisitions. Supply and demand.
Are you also possibly saying this could be a conglomerate, M&A boom like the ones during 1960s? I think your idea is insightful but I could use more explanation.
I believe you are right. The same type of rally we had at the end of last year, which showed very little volume off from it's October lows. It's not that the bulls are strong, the bears are weak. or are they ?. I think the bears are ansiously waiting for the beginning of the next "Bull Steak Fest"...... Which will not start until the fed raises interest past 5% (at their recent pace we will problably all be dead) and/or we hit DOW11000 or 11500 We could rally for the rest of the year on nothing but air....pretty screwed imo.
some of you guys are funny. i used to hear "the market cant go up because the vix is too low". i dont hear much about the vix anymore. now i hear the market cant continue to go up on light volume. a little clue. the market can do anything it wants in any way it wants. volume is over rated. the market can move on almost no volume if it wants to.
Haven't read the whole thread so I hope this isn't redundant but this reminds me of a joke I'm sure some of you have heard. A broker calls his trader client and says "I got bad news and I got good news. Clients asks "what's that?" Broker says "the bad news is your account has been wiped out". "The good news is it was on light volume".