Keep An Eye On OVEN

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Jan 11, 2007.

  1. Folks I'm toying with buying TurboChef, this is the ultra fast cooking oven company.

    Why I like It:
    > Starbucks making a push into hot breakfasts they have installed roughly 1000 Turbo-Chef ovens so far and plan to do approx 1000 per quarter. Starbucks has 9000 stores in the US presently.
    > Subway has installed ovens in most of their 20,000 US stores. Together Starbucks and Subway account for half of OVEN's sales.
    > Customers continue to build now including many hotels! Bellagio in Vegas, Hilton & Intercontinental brands are also buying for their bigger properties, AMC theaters have rolled them out in their larger megaplexes and Disney theme park restaurants has them. Dunkin Donuts has been testing the product & has started rolling them out into their stores. That's 4,500 more potential sites!

    The commercial business is exciting no doubt but what about the home sales? Wouldn't we all like to cook a 12 pound turkey in 45 minutes rather than 4 hours! The home ovens are scheduled for rollout this MARCH. I envision them being a hit but who knows? The short sellers are on this baby to the tune of 25% of the available shares so a smooth rollout with a good publicity campaign could burn them good. I'd love to see some kind of hook up with a high end appliance maker and indeed wouldn't it make perfect sense for TurboChef to get bought?, Miele comes to mind from germany, even Swedens Electrolux.

    I expect OVEN to finally start making some money within 2 years. Sales are expected to climb from $50 million this year to $100 million in 07' If they can keep costs under control that ought to bring them into profitability. Lose 80 cents or so this year and make perhaps 5 cents next.

    One concern is a relatively low cash pile- $25 million
    but this is a company with zero debt at the moment.
  2. Mvic


    Picked up some Feb Sunw calls today, vol and action look good. Earnings on the 23rd and impressive new server. Abnormal option action, heavy in the calls (58.5K vs 4K 10 day average). Some goog rumor but I think it will do well on its own merit and will surprise to the upside at earnings and give great guidance.

    My view is overal short term view is bearish so was looking for something to go long and I like sunw more than the usual high fliers.
  3. Hangingman I'll tell you what an untrained eye can see, chooses to see- in this chart. In October you could of had it at $13 dead in the water. November, still $13.
    December $14 now a real nice give away... Dec 14 gap up (haven't tracked the reason yet- might of been the same baron's piece I was working from) Gap to $16. Buyers there. They took a nice short ride up to $17 and change and then turned down, they started selling. stock broke the island in the sky pattern we always look for- not a good sign. Stock dips sellers capitulate (low volume) RS line indicates oversold. Using a pair of rising trendlines i can see support at $15.50 and an upside target of $30. For a $16 stock that's not bad risk reward. Now what's this thing called MACD?
  4. I wouldnt worry. You will be able to buy this again next summer for probably about 7 bucks.

  5. hangingman any thoughts on ENER? I grant you OVEN is a longshot- I'm mostly intrigued with the feb timing : heavy short position and a consumer rollout...

    ENER can be in the midst of the whole solar movement I think used to be $50....
  6. ENER MIGHT be an ok swing trade. It seems the support is 29 and 32. The resistance should be somewhere around 36.

    I would only bank on it as a trade, but not a long term hold.

  7. agreed I have it as a swiing as well up to $37... thinking about it for today....SI
  8. This might be a time when you want to sit on the sidelines.

    Every indicator that I have tells me that the market is going to turn sometime in the next 30 days.

    I can illustrate many charts that are telling. The market will not agree with me right now, but I think there will be a turning point in the future. Right now, the market is powered up by lower oil and the Apple IPhone. In fact, there were cellphone tower companies that were up huge because of the IPhone.

    This chart is VERY telling.$TNX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p58632778548

    If the TNX can stop at 4.85, the 200 day moving average, we might be ok. However, if it continues up to 5.25, then we might have a problem.

    The only thing that is lowering the effects of the TNX right now is lower oil.

    I have concluded that there are no good deals right now except MAYBE energy stocks which have taken their lumps. In looking at the bullish percent indicators, they might have a little more downside. My analysis of oil says that $48 is the bottom, however, it does seem to be holding at $52 which could change fast. If pressed on the issue, I say oil bottoms at $48 and then that will be the time to get back in on oil related stocks.

    All this is theory, of course, and the markets will dictate their own course.

  9. Telling the stonedinvestor to hold off is like asking Anna Nicole not to make a fool of herself! The Nasdog wants to bark 2500 is very tough ceiling I believe as we have noticed the past few weeks but we should knife through. If Apple being at the head of an options scandal didn't take down the market, if more troops to Iraq doesn't bother anyone, it quickly becomes all about earnings again- which look pretty good. This period in the presidential cycle has only brought two or three down years in 30 plus years of backtesting...
    #10     Jan 12, 2007