hmm. well, my latest volunteer work for a nuclear watchdog group went to a dead end so i can post again. yes. stoney. i will but CBLI again and almost bought some yesterday at the close for $8.90. i've been trying to get it for $8.50. it's a definite buy in the $8s. i stil think that Fonnstein and Gudkov are high on their own dope and are misleading investors by saying they could have a drug approved as fast as they claim. that's why i want to pick up these shares on the cheap. look at HEPH to see all the obstacles along the way. and with Richard Hollis' friends in Congress, there's even a political risk that Congress wil override HHS and make a direct appropriation for a bone-marrow ARS drug (a drug that only HEPH has,: Neumune). i still think it's baloney for DoD to knock Neumune out of the running with this BS about GI syndrome being not only important, but necessary. that's pure bunk. the only reason for then doing that is if they cooked up a dirty side deal with CBLI to hurt HEPH's prospects. if Congress gets involved (and Waxman is a FORCE), things could get better for HEPH and worse for CBLI very quickly. i still think that HEPH has the better mousetrap. DoD's GI syndrome thing is as stupid as the Duck & Cover movie: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1528313029232126903 i don't think the Protectan can demonstrate the same type of overall survival benefit that Neumune gave in primates. so i think that long-term they will fail. the sad thing is that HHS and DoD managed to destroy the only viable radioprotectant that would save lives for high dose exposures. i still don't understand how Gudkov and Fonnstein can come out of nowhere and steal a contract that should have been awarded to HEPH ... that is, unless there's corruption involved.
ok. i'll pay up for a small number of CBLI shares at $8.85, today's bottom at 10:29 AM. the trading seems to be indicating Distribution but that's just by eye-ball. i think that some people who paid up more than $10 are tryin to get out because they have discovered this is a hyped stock involved in a corrupt federal procurement. Congress can make things right and override the HHS decision that Neumune did't meet the requirements.
Welcome Home BioB! Hate to see a job opportunity gone but the governments loss is our gain. First off your thought- i still think that Fonnstein and Gudkov are high on their own dope and are misleading investors by saying they could have a drug approved as fast as they claim. is right on. They are talking sh*t but no doubt this chatter could move the stock back up. Normally you would say it's just a DOD contact let's move on-- but the two stocks involved are such volatile and yummy plays. Might a new third party enter the game? I'm hoping. Still the side effect profile is much better I believe with CBLI if you can trust the numbers- this fact I believe is what ultimately tipped the scales back in CBLI's favor. But let's talk about the REAL story. The way CBLI dropped that secondary in the middle of all this and the day before the new announcement! What were they trying to do to their shareholders? Imagine how many gave up on that down 9.9% day only to see it pop back 9.4% the very next day. Oh the pain! And how about if you were holding the stock and if their was no shares being sold by the Co you could have made a clean 10% on the big announcement instead nada. Back where you started. these guys are the Mutt & Jeff of the corporate world and the funny thing is- they may succeed despite themselves!
i don't see what you're talking about with side effect differences between Neumune and Protectan. localized irritation at injection site is what every body bulder who injects steroids has lived with for a long time. Neumune has been studied with AFRRI for 10 years. i have not seen a logical explanation for dropping HEPH in favor of CBLI unless there's corruption involved. the GI syndrome requirement is not based on science! or at least it's not based on anything that is unclassified. a major risk with CBLI that i see is a Congressional investigation into the botched Bioshield procurement. if someone in Washington accuses CBLI of what i say they're doing here, they're toast. GAO can get all over them. the newspapers love a scandal. they'd be all over it.
CBLI falling like a rock on the sucker rally today: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=cbli&t=1d i'll holding out for the $8.50 level it hit after they announced the secondary. the "other player" besides HHS and DoD is NASA. like i said earlier, NASA gave CBLI a GRANT to look at protecting astronauts from (the hypothetical) radiation-induced incremental cancer risk from space missions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CBLI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= tells me that if $8.85 does not hold (and why should it?), $8.50 is next.
No. no there was a better safety profile for sure. I'll post it when I can. Two little cousins have descended upon my house and along with my 3 year old staying home from preschool it's safe to say I'm in deep sh*t.
umm. no. i think you're comparing the HYPE from CBLI to the DATA from HEPH. i'm not interested in the dreams they get from the dope they're smoking. i've been following HEPH and Neumune for at least 5 years. the drug is a steroid that stimulates the bone marrow. it doesn't have androgenic effects so it can be used in women. it may have some mild anabolic (muscle building) effects which could possibly lead to it being scheduled as an anabolic steroid, but this drug would be handled with strict controls. i think the biggest risk to HEPH with Neumune from side effects is based on the silly 1994 Anabolic Act that scheduled any drug that promotes muscle growth. having it a C-III controlled substance like testosterone would mean that it would have to be locked up and inventoried against diversion. but this drug SHOULD BE locked up and only used in emergency situations so i don't see that as a show-stopper. anyway, HEPH claims that it's not anabolic after all. please try to show us some proof that there are any problems with Neumune besides injection site irritation. there is no question that CBLI is smoking too much of their own dope and overstating the purported benefits of their drug. the major problem with Protectan is that it works best as a prophylactic treatment administered BEFORE radiation exposure. well, this is fine for the NASA astronaust afraid of getting cancer from the radiation they'll get on a space mission. astronauts would probably be exposed to many chemical carcinogens in that artificial environment and it would be impossible to know if the drug lowers the risk of cancer at the < 1-5 rem/yr level. how much money can they make protecting astronauts from radiation? answer is that NASA will pay their development costs and give them a negotiated profit margin based on how much it actually costs them. but with such low volume sales, even with an Amgen-like 90% gross margin they're not gonna make much money selling doses to NASA for space missions. if they receive ANY government contract, they need to open their books to auditors from the agency and also from GAO. a government contractor is prohibited from "price gouging." they could probably negotiate a 90% profit margin for NASA, but if they get $10 million in total revenues, that's not going to give the company a positive PE. but since the poplulation is so afraid of raduation causing cancer, people would start lobbying for broader access to the drug is it was going to be given to astronauts. i think it's a bunch of malarky because the whole concept of the linear no-threshold hypothesis is based on nonsense and stupidity. It's ridiculous to think that low levels of radiation cause cancer, but the stupidity was fostered by governments and all the national and international radiological protection agencies. See http://www.up.ac.za/saapmb38/pollycove1/pollycove1.htm for a discussion of why the LNT hypothesis is now considered bunk.