house prices peaked around that time, by the way. the stocks lagged a little bit. Look back to early 03 levels for a short price target.
Two closest sales were just over a mil, and just under a mil for a major fixer. The major fixer is most like my property in terms of the view, etc. Do you have the cash to wager? Kbh was a low of 21.2, we'll have to check the others, but they must close lower then the lowest price of 2003. All must do so, homebuilders that is, and it must hapen W in 9 months.
Well, those are awfully strict terms. And sort of unilaterally beneficial to you, no? Every publicly traded home builder has to close below its lowest 03 share price w/ 9 months? Why not stack the odds in your favor even more and let's say that the S&P must also hit 8,500 before year end, and that monkeys must leap out of Larry Kudlow's asshole on live TV?
Take note that this decline in housing will not happen overnight. It will be a decline over a 1-2 year period starting from right now. Actually, it might even be longer then that. Look back at the chart and look at where the stock traded before the housing boom. At the end of 2001, it appears KBH traded at 15 dollars. What does the stock market classically do with stocks where the business is slowly declining over a 2 year period and negative reports keep rolling in? For those stocks, the bottom is anyone's guess. You might as well throw some numbers in a hat, numbering them from 0 to 45 and that will be a better system at predicting KBHs bottom then anything.