it was only last thursday when some noted weatherman/service said katrina would veer away from the rigs.. drove crude down that morning and friday. there needs to be oversight on weathermen.
Courtesy of Drudge Report, sounds like a bit of a dire warning to me: ------------------------------------------------ Urgent Weather Message from NWS New Orleans WWUS74 KLIX 281550NPWLIXURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED HURRICANE KATRINAA MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. ATLEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS... AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING... BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEWCROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEARHURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE.. .ARECERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTUREOUTSIDE!LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ------------------------------------------------ Yikes...
The last NWS hurrican warning statement I read said "Evacuate the warning area. Now!" I watched the various hurricanes over my lifetime and this is the first one I've ever seen with a "Now!" from the NWS. Frankly this is one storm that scares me. Expect a major disaster for New Orleans if this landfalls on a direct hit, especially if they are on the strong side of the landfall - looks like the best they can hope for is to be on the weak side at this point.
When have we ever seen oil traders not take advantage of a natural disaster to squeeze up the prices?
I heard one report that NO may be under water for 6 months! The pumps will be under water. There will be failures in the insurance industry on a scale not seen before.
While I am not and would not be short over the weekend, I kind of agree with rubberbird. Nothing has really changed with the storm since trading on Friday. Yes, it got upgraded to a cat 5, but there's no real difference between a 4 and a 5 regarding rigs. Size, path, wave action, etc. are more salient. We will see in 30 minutes, though.
why was there a sharp selloff in the Crude oil futures markets late friday ? was this some type of gun the stops , or fade the fear ( in case Katrina did not hit so hard ) ? Assuming this is as bad or worse than people thought late last week what are the odds we open or trade above 68 , 70 overnight in Crude ... or is the real fear / spike going to be in Nat Gas ? how often does the Nat "Cane" Center do updates ? hourly ?