Kass: Why the Bears Are Wrong

Kass sometimes gets things right. But then a lotta people were saying "looks like we should get a bottom soon..." as the SPX was diving under 700. Kass acts like he called it exactly, but what he said was "Market should bottom in a few days". Well, the market dropped another 5-7% for a couple days, THEN went higher. Still, at least he isn't a total permabear.

But did you see Thursday and Friday? Kass had three or four posts at RM where he said things like "shorting GOOG now", "buying inverse financial ETFs" "add to financial shorts", "shorting SPY now...". And da market just kept powering higher and higher and higher.

 

Kass is often early on his calls, he seems to stay in and hold through the pain until he gets vindicated or thinks he was wrong.

 

What a crock of shit. Do you really believe the "Bullish" speech?

I mean, do the idiots who push the "Rebound" in 4th quarter 09 and 2010 really believe what they say?

There are two new shoes dropping as we speak. Commercial RE is unwinding so fast, 100X faster than home loan storm. The main stream press is not reporting it yet. Vacant Commerical RE is 20% and climbing fast. Every Major city is seeing the effect as I write.

The second shoe is dropping as well, Credit Cards. The numbers are devistating. As the Unemployment % drifts higher state by state,, 48 States reported increases in March's unemployment numbers.....the deliquent accounts are turning to Defaults. CITI is in-sovlent and is going to impload in a few months.

Dig deep and do some more research and you'll find that the "Accounting" rules have been changed and the "STRESS" TEST soon to be release is a crock of shit. It's padded hard and the numbers are false. They are much worse than what is on this "Stress' Test Report.

Banks still have CDO's marked at 80 to 90 cents on the dollar. The real values are in the 60 cents on the dollar. They have yet to wake up.

Now read the following release from the G20 Crew.

“A single clause in Point 19 of the communiqué issued by the G20 leaders amounts to revolution in the global financial order. “We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity,’ it said. SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund that has lain dormant for half a century."


The G20 crew understand the the Depression has started and that they can't run from it. It took about 2 years in the last Depressionary Cycle for the real shit storm to hit, after the Failuer of banks. This time it may be delayed a year or two more, just in time for the Dumping of the dollar....and the SDR to take it's place in Global Trade.


It will be interesting how many ETers will be left posting on this site in the next 6 to 12 months.

One should be in OIL, physical Wells pumping as well as "Stock" and Futures....if your not holding some sort of Metal, in physical Form, Gold, Silver even Platnum, If you do not own some land.... Improved or unimproved.... and you do not have a means to "Farm" in some capacity, either on your "Deck" with simple Foods or actual Acreage to really farm.... If your not invested in some Agriculture position, Wheat, rice, .....of that nature...

I would move out of the US dollar and get into some of the currency baskes that are super cheap right now. I would hold maybe 1% of ones networth in Dollars at all times after all overhead is paid.. So if your net worth is 100k, then hold 1000 at all times for "Fun Money To spend, but thats about it.. Money you need for Bills, fun stuff etc.

 

I have been saying this for months, maybe even years now with Commercial real estate and credit card delinquencies, the bulls are too stupid to realize what is actually happening at this very moment and ignoring it just because they believe that by the 3rd quarter of 2009 everything will be just fine and dandy. This is not the end of this credit crisis, things are going to get far more worse as we enter in the 2nd half of 2009, commercial real estate is just in the beginning stages. I see all the for lease and sale signs on major roads near me, many closing up and going out of business signs in many stores as well, anyone who thinks the bottom has been met in both economy and market is just going to be proven completely wrong in the years ahead.