I think you make some solid points, Jeff. Simplicity may be the key (although I would question what happens when the system stops working, as systems are sometimes known to do). Personally, "analysis paralysis" has been one of my biggest struggles as a trader. Another other side of the coin, however, has to do with all the scammers (a la "American Greed" on CNBC, which I keep citing). In _Search Engine Optimization for Dummies_, Peter Kent writes something to this effect near the end of the 5th edition: "over 80% of the SEO industry is fraud. There, I said it." Same goes for the financial industry: advisors, newsletters, educational services, and fund managers. You almost do need to be educated rather than ignorant to navigate this minefield if only to determine what is likely truth and what is likely scam. I would even go one step further and claim this to be a matter of critical thinking. Educated people tend to think critically before accepting new information more than ignorant, uneducated individuals do. Many of the scams out there succeed not because of their overwhelming brilliance but rather because their victims develop a trust (this plays into marketing and psychology) and literally never think to critically analyze the premises.
Back on p.1 of this thread, Pekelo recounted her claim to have made 50% in 2008. How does that sound?
Do the return calculations seem legit? If she starts out with 50% allocation and only increases when she starts considering Mexico as a lifetime getaway, then can she really make 30% on the whole account over a 9-month period? If she survived 2008 then could she truly have started with a 50% allocation? To roll down and out, wouldn't she have to do more than just double the size to "make things whole?" If she flipped to the call side then how did she fare the week of March 10, 2009, with two 2+ SD moves to the upside and the ensuing V-bottom? She could have been lucky, to be sure, but I've backtested other market periods where this strategy (in the systemic fashion that I applied it, at least) would have blown up. As I posted earlier, I found there to be many details missing--enough so that I question whether we have any idea what the "strategy" is (or if there is one, or if the story is real--hence my reason for starting this thread). If it's a matter of luck then passing it off as a simple strategy replicable by any ol' average jane trader is quite misleading.
It was rehtorical. If you don't know who the sucker in the room is, then it's you. How could anyone possibly think this is real? She's marketing her funds without her last name? With no introduction? No firm name? Comingling client money and her own? Tastytrade wins. They get traffic and eyeballs. Everyone here wastes their time debating this. This Tom sosneft guy is smart and I can see why he's worth millions.
I don't know if her returns are legit or not and don't really have a need to know or care. I do suspect however that she wasn't being totally upfront about her trading plan / system. I don't believe someone good with numbers and probabilities just looks at the current market price and says lets trade pretending the market is 100 points less than it really is. If your a numbers trader as she claims she is, you know the levels going into the month that have proven historically that they may be violated but have never closed above / below. I know I watch those levels.
Took me 30 mins to find all those out. I guess by not mentioning those, they are in compliance with the SEC rule of not directly advertising HFs. It is actually pretty smart... Here she is recommending a free ebook on The Option Trader's Hedge Fund: http://blog.booksontheknob.org/2012/09/free-book-option-traders-hedge-fund-kn.html So you guys can save 22K on a seminar...
spy since the low in 09 has been a premium sellers dream,you really only have to be afraid of puts because the up moves are slow enough that you can cover with moderate pain,does it say when she started,
aug 11 and may 10..2 out of 45 months ,any business would take those numbers..have to wonder how she was positioned in may 10 flash crash ... i didnt watch the vids but i saw the 1st time sos had her on and he prefaced it with saying that occasionally they would get a great trader at think or swim and they would sit up and take notice, so for the that reason i believe shes legit